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Application of Probabilistic Model to Calculate Probabilities of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Growth on Polyethylene Cutting Board
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 Title & Authors
Application of Probabilistic Model to Calculate Probabilities of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Growth on Polyethylene Cutting Board
Lee, Joo-Yeon; Suk, Hee-Jin; Lee, Hee-Young; Lee, Soo-Min; Yoon, Yo-Han;
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This study calculated kinetic parameters of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and developed a probabilistic model to estimate growth probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 on polyethylene cutting boards as a function of temperature and time. The surfaces of polyethylene coupons ( cm) were inoculated with E. coli O157:H7 NCCP11142 at 4 Log . The coupons were stored at 13 to for 12 h, and cell counts of E. coli O157:H7 were enumerated on McConkey II with sorbitol agar every 2 h. Kinetic parameters (maximum specific growth rate, Log ; lag phase duration, h; lower asymptote, Log ; upper asymptote, Log ) were calculated with the modified Gompertz model. Of 56 combinations (temperaturetime), the combinations that had 0.5 Log of bacterial growth were designated with the value of 1, and the combinations that had increases of <0.5 Log were given the value 0. These growth response data were fitted to the logistic regression to develop the model predicting probabilities of E. coli O157:H7 growth. Specific growth rate and growth data showed that E. coli O157:H7 cells were grown at , but there were no obvious growth of the pathogen below . Moreover, the developed probabilistic model showed acceptable performance to calculate growth probability of E. coli O157:H7. Therefore, the results should be useful in determining upper limits of working temperature and time, inhibiting E. coli O157:H7 growth on polyethylene cutting board.
Escherichia coli O157:H7;probabilistic model;predictive model;cutting board;
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