Advanced SearchSearch Tips
A Empirical Analysis on the Impact of the Consumer Sentiment on the Housing Market
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
A Empirical Analysis on the Impact of the Consumer Sentiment on the Housing Market
Chun, Hae-Jung;
This study aims to conduct the empirical analysis on the impact of consumer sentiment on the housing market by using time-series analysis methodology. As for the consumer sentiment for housing, the consumer sentiment index for housing sales market was utilized, whereas the housing sales price was set by the sales price index. As for the time range, the monthly data from January 2012 to March 2014 was utilized, whereas the spatial range was sub-divided into nationwide, Seoul and non-Capital area. As a result of analyzing the impulse response, the sales price and consumer sentiment index as to the sales price impact displayed a positive (+) reaction in all the regions. In addition, the sales price as to the impact of consumer sentiment index displayed a positive (+) reaction in nationwide and Seoul, whereas it displayed a positive (+) reaction at the initial phase but later displayed a weak negative (-) reaction. It is believed that the reason why the size of reaction in Seoul was found to be larger than the other regions was because it was performing the role of investment goods that would be affected more significantly by psychological factors as compared with the other regions. As a result of this study, it was possible to find out that the consumer sentiment as to housing, in other words, the intention for purchase, had a large impact on housing sales price. Thus, the result thereof indicates that the consumer sentiment index can be leveraged as an important variable as to the changes of real estate market in the Korean real-estate market as well. Also, it implies that consumer sentiment and intention for purchase should be taken into consideration for analyzing the real-estate market going forward.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment;Housing Sales Price;Cointegration Test;Impulse Response Analysis;
 Cited by
아파트 규모별 하위시장과 소비심리지수의 선행성 및 인과성에 관한 연구,김구회;김기홍;이주형;

한국산학기술학회논문지, 2016. vol.17. 4, pp.682-691 crossref(new window)
국토연구원, 공간분석기법, 한울아카데미, 2004

김대원, 유정석, 주택가격에 대한 심리적 태도가 주택 매매 거래량에 미치는 영향 분석, 주택연구, 21(2), 2013

문지희, 전세매매가격비율이 개인의 주택구입심리에 미치는 영향, 건국대학교 석사학위논문, 2012

박천규, 이영, 주택시장 체감지표의 주택시장지표 예측력 분석, 부동산학연구, 16(1), 2010

송일호, 정우수, 계량경제실증분석, 삼영사, 2002

이수욱, 김재환, 문지희, 박천규, 전성제, 최정임, 황관석, 부동산시장 선진화 시스템 구축연구(II), 국토연구원, 2009

이홍재, 박재석, 송동진, 임경원, 금융경제 시계열분석, 경문사, 2007

전준호, 주택소비심리가 전세가격 변동에 미치는 영향, 고려대학교 석사학위논문, 2011

정의철, 소비자 심리가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석, 부동산학연구, 16(3), 2010

조준혁, 노승철, 김예지, 심리요인이 주택가격 변동에 미치는 영향, 국토계획, 45(6), 2010

최희갑, 임병준, 주택가격 전망이 주택가격 및 경기에 미치는 영향, 국토연구, 63, 2009

CliveW. J. Granger, Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37(3), 1969

Kamakura, Wagner, and Guy Gessener, Consumer sentiment and buying intentions revisited: A comparison og predictive usefulness, Journal of Economic Psychology, 7, 1986

Katona, Consumer Behavior: Theory and Findings on Expectation and Aspirations, The American Economic Review, 58(2), Papers and Proceedings of the Eightieth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, 1968

Weber, William, and Mike Devaney, Can consumer sentiment surveys forecast housing starts?, The Appraisal Journal, 4, 1996

Johnson, Mark Anthony, Studying How Changes in Consumer Sentiment Impact the Stock Markets and the Housing Markets, University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations, 2010