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Short-term Electric Load Forecasting for Summer Season using Temperature Data
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 Title & Authors
Short-term Electric Load Forecasting for Summer Season using Temperature Data
Koo, Bon-gil; Kim, Hyoung-su; Lee, Heung-seok; Park, Juneho;
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Accurate and robust load forecasting model is very important in power system operation. In case of short-term electric load forecasting, its result is offered as an standard to decide a price of electricity and also can be used shaving peak. For this reason, various models have been developed to improve forecasting accuracy. In order to achieve accurate forecasting result for summer season, this paper proposes a forecasting model using corrected effective temperature based on Heat Index and CDH data as inputs. To do so, we establish polynomial that expressing relationship among CDH, load, temperature. After that, we estimate parameters that is multiplied to each of the terms using PSO algorithm. The forecasting results are compared to Holt-Winters and Artificial Neural Network. Proposing method shows more accurate by 1.018%, 0.269%, 0.132% than comparison groups, respectively.
Short-term electric load forecasting;PSO;CDH;
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