A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model

Song, Junmo

doi:10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.3.725

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A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model

Journal title : Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
Volume 27, Issue 3, 2016, pp.725-732
Publisher : Korean Data and Information Science Society
DOI : 10.7465/jkdi.2016.27.3.725

Title & Authors

A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model
Song, Junmo;

Abstract

This study analyzes the number of Jeju-bound tourists according to travellers` purposes. We classify the travellers` purposes into three categories: "Rest and Sightseeing", "Leisure and Sport", and "Conference and Business". To see an impact of MERS outbreak occurred in May 2015 on the number of tourists, we fit seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model to the monthly arrivals data from January 2005 to March 2016. The estimation results show that the number of tourists for "Leisure and Sport" and "Conference and Business" were significantly affected by MERS outbreak whereas arrivals for "Rest and Sightseeing" were little influenced. Using the fitted models, we predict the number of Jeju-bound tourists.

Keywords

Forecasting tourist demand;intervention analysis;MERS outbreak;seasonal ARIMA model;

Language

Korean

Cited by

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