Advanced SearchSearch Tips
ARIMA Based Wind Speed Modeling for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis and Cost Estimation
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
ARIMA Based Wind Speed Modeling for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis and Cost Estimation
Rajeevan, A.K.; Shouri, P.V; Nair, Usha;
  PDF(new window)
Necessity has compelled man to improve upon the art of tapping wind energy for power generation; an apt reliever of strain exerted on the non-renewable fossil fuel. The power generation in a Wind Farm (WF) depends on site and wind velocity which varies with time and season which in turn determine wind power modeling. It implies, the development of an accurate wind speed model to predict wind power fluctuations at a particular site is significant. In this paper, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model for wind speed is developed for a 99MW wind farm in the southern region of India. Because of the uncertainty in wind power developed, the economic viability and reliability of power generation is significant. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) method is used to determine the economic viability of WF generated power. Reliability models of WF are developed with the help of load curve of the utility grid and Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). ARIMA wind speed model is used for developing COPT. The values of annual reliability indices and variations of risk index of the WF with system peak load are calculated. Such reliability models of large WF can be used in generation system planning.
ARIMA model;Economic analysis;Reliability model;Wind energy;Wind farms (WFs);
 Cited by
World Wind Energy Association, World Wind Energy Statistics 2015.[Online]. Available:

Roy Billinton, Hua Chen, R. Ghajar. “Time-series models for reliability evaluation of power systems including wind energy”. Microelectron Reliab; vol.36. no. 9. pp. 1253-1261, 1996. crossref(new window)

R. Billinton, Bagen, Y. Cui. “Reliability evaluation of small stand-alone wind energy conversion systems using a time series simulation model”. IEE Proce. Generation,Transmission and Distribution Vol.150, Issue: 1, pp: 96-100: Jan. 2003. crossref(new window)

Roy Billinton, Guang Bai, “Generating Capacity Adequacy Associated With Wind Energy”. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion. Vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 641- 646, Sept.2004. crossref(new window)

Rajesh Karki, Po Hu, “Wind Power Simulation Model for Reliability Evaluation”. IEEE Canadian Con-ference on Electrical and Computer Engineering, pp. 541-544, May 2005.

Rajesh Karki, Po Hu, Roy Billinton, “A Simplified Wind Power Generation Model for Reliability Evaluation”. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion. Vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 533- 540, June 2006. crossref(new window)

P. Hu R. Karki R. Billinton, “Reliability evaluation of generating systems containing wind power and energy storage”. IET Gener. Transm. Distrib, Vol. 3, Issue. 8, pp. 783-791. 2009. crossref(new window)

R. Billinton, R. Karki, “Incorporating wind power in generating system reliability evaluation”. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag. 1(2), pp. 120-128. (Apr-June 2010). crossref(new window)

G. Gross and F. D. Galiana, “Short-Term load forecasting,” Proc. IEEE, vol. 75, no. 12, pp. 1558-1573, December 1987. crossref(new window)

M. T. Hagan and S. M. Behr, “The time series approach to short term load forecasting,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 2, pp. 785-791, Aug. 1987.

Javier Contreras, Rosario Espínola, Francisco J. Nogales, Antonio J. Conejo, “ARIMA Models to Predict Next-Day Electricity Prices”. IEEE Trans.P. Syst., vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 1014 - 1020, Aug. 2003. crossref(new window)

Rajesh G. Kavasseri, Krithika Seetharaman, “Day Ahead Wind Speed Forecasting using f-ARIMA models”. Renewable Energy, vol. 34, issue 5, pp.1388-1393. 2009. crossref(new window)

Peiyuan Chen, Troels Pedersen, Birgitte Bak-Jensen, Zhe Chen, “ARIMA-Based Time Series Model of Stochastic Wind Power Generation”. IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 667-676, May.2010.

G. L. Johnson, “Wind Energy Systems”. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice- Hall, 1985.

G. E. P. Box, G. M. Jenkins, and G. C. Reinsel, "Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control". 3rd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice- Hall, 1994.

Rajeevan. A.K, P.V. Shouri, Usha Nair. “ARIMA Modeling of Wind Speed for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis”. IEEE International Conference on Magnetics, Machines and Drives (AICERA/iCMMD) pp.1-5. July 2014.

Vestas Wind Systems, [Online]. Available:

Paul Giorsetto, Kent F.Utsurogi. “Development of a new procedure for reliability modeling of wind turbine generators”, IEEE Trans. Power Appar. Syst., 102, (1), pp. 134-143, 1983.

R Billinton and R. N. Allan, “Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems”, Plenum Press, New York, 1996.

Billinton R, Chowdhury AA. “Incorporation of wind energy conversion systems in conventional generating capacity adequacy assessment”. IEE Proc. Gener. Transm. Distrib. 139; pp. 47-56, 1992. crossref(new window)

Billinton R, Bagen. “Incorporating reliability index distributions in small isolated generating system reliability performance assessment”. IEE Proc. Gener. Transm. Distrib. 151; pp: 469-76, 2004. crossref(new window)

M. Carolin Mabel, R. Edwin Raj, E. Fernandez. “Analysis on reliability aspects of wind power”. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.15, pp: 1210-1216, 2011. crossref(new window)

Li Wang, Tai-Her Yeh, We-Jen Lee, Zhe Chen. “Benefit Evaluation of Wind Turbine Generators in Wind Farms Using Capacity-Factor Analysis and Economic-Cost Methods.” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 24, no.2, pp. 692-704, May.2009. crossref(new window)

Mathew. S. “Wind energy: fundamentals, resource analysis and economics”. Heidelberg: Springer; 2006.

Gökçek M, Genç MS. “Evaluation of electricity generation and energy cost of wind energy conversion systems (WECSs) in Central Turkey”. Appl. Energy. 86: pp. 2731-9, 2009. crossref(new window)

M. EL-Shimy. “Adequacy-Based Placement of WECS in Egypt”. IEEE International Middle-East Power System Conference, MEPCON 2008, pp. 617-623. March 2008.

A. A. Chowdhury, “Reliability Models for Large Wind Farms in Generation System Planning”. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, Vol. 2, pp. 1926-1933, June 2005.

R. L. Sullivan, “Power System Planning”, McGraw-Hill, 1977.

Adaramola M S, Paul S S, Oyedepo S O. “Assessment of electricity generation and energy cost of wind energy conversion systems in north-central Nigeria”. Energy Conversion and Management, 52(12): 3363-3368, 2011. crossref(new window)