The remarkable story of Portogruaro Civic Tower`s probabilistic health monitoring

- Journal title : Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
- Volume 2, Issue 4, 2015, pp.301-318
- Publisher : Techno-Press
- DOI : 10.12989/smm.2015.2.4.301

Title & Authors

The remarkable story of Portogruaro Civic Tower`s probabilistic health monitoring

Zonta, Daniele; Pozzi, Matteo;

Zonta, Daniele; Pozzi, Matteo;

Abstract

This is the story of a bell-tower and its monitoring. The Civic Tower in Portogruaro is a 59 m high masonry bell-tower, originally built in the XIII century, today leaning more than a meter out of plumb. Since 2003, the building inclination has been continuously monitored with an optical inclinometer in an effort to see whether the tilt is still in progress. When the monitoring started, it was thought highly unlikely that the Tower would tilt further. After three years of monitoring and historical investigation, this idea was completely overturned. We show here how the initial view developed to a final awareness via a probabilistic analysis of the information acquired, based on Bayesian logic. We illustrate how the joint use of instrumental monitoring and historical documentation allowed timely recognition of signs of ongoing tilting and accurate calculation not only of the mean inclination trend, but also the credibility of this information.

Keywords

Bayesian analysis;real-time monitoring;historic building;

Language

English

References

1.

Bayes, T. (1763), "An Essay toward solving a Problem in the doctrine of Chances", Philos. T. R. Soc. London, 53, 370-418.

2.

Beck, J.L. (2010), "Bayesian system identification based on probability logic", Struct. Control Health Monit., 17, 825-847

3.

Beck, J.L. and Au, S.K. (2002), "Bayesian updating of structural models and reliability using markov chain Monte Carlo simulation", J. Eng. Mech. - ASCE, 128(4), 380-391.

4.

Beck, J.L. and Katafygiotis, L.S. (1998), "Updating models and their uncertainties, I: Bayesian statistical framework", J. Eng. Mech. - ASCE, 124(2), 455-461.

5.

Beck, J.L. and Yuen, K. (2004), "Model selection using response measurements: Bayesian probabilistic approach", J. Eng. Mech.- ASCE, 130(2), 192-203.

6.

Bretthorst, G.L. (1996), An introduction to model selection using probability theory as logic, (Ed., G.R. Heidbreder), Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods, Springer New York, NY.

7.

Busetto, A. and Romanin, L. (2001), Studio preliminare per l'individuazione del percorso atto a definire lo stato patologico della Torre Civica, Tecnical report for the Municipality of Portogruaro.

8.

Capecchi D. and Vestroni F. (1993), "Identification of finite element models in structural dynamics", Eng. Struct., 15(1), 21-30.

9.

Chatzi, E. and Smyth A.W. (2009), "The unscented Kalman filter and particle filter methods for nonlinear structural system identification with non-collocated heterogeneous sensing", Struct. Control Health Monit., 16(1), 99-123.

10.

Flynn E.B. and Todd M.D. (2010), "Bayesian probabilistic structural modeling for optimal sensor placement in ultrasonic guided wave-based structural health monitoring", Proc. SPIE 7648, Smart Sensor Phenomena, Technology, Networks, and Systems 2010, 76480Z (April 08, 2010); doi:10.1117/12.847744

11.

Gregory, P. (2005), Bayesian Logical Data Analysis for the Physical Sciences, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

12.

Jaynes, E.T. (2003), Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

13.

MacKay, D.J.C. (2003), Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

14.

Malings, C. and Pozzi, M. (2014), "Conditional entropy and value of information based metrics for sensor placement in infrastructure systems", Proceedings of the 6th World Conference on Structural Control and Monitoring, Barcelona, 15-17 July 2014.

15.

Memarzadeh M., Pozzi M. and Kolter J.Z. (2014), "Optimal planning and learning in uncertain environments for the management of wind farms", J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000390 , 04014076.

16.

Molteni, M. (2003), Torre Civica Duomo di S. Andrea: Campagna di studi, analisi, indagini e prove sperimentali per la valutazione dello stato patologico della torre campanaria: Relazione tecnica conclusiva, Technical report for the Municipality of Portogruaro.

17.

Mthembu, L., Marwala, T., Friswell, M.I. and Adhikarid, S. (2011), "Model selection in finite element model updating using the Bayesian evidence statistic", Mech. Syst. Signal Pr., 25(7), 2399-2412.

18.

Murphy, K. (2012), Machine Learning, a probabilistic perspective, MIT press.

19.

Papadimitriou, C., Beck, J.L. and Katafyogiotis, L.S. (1997), "Asymptotic expansion for reliability and moments of uncertain systems", J. Eng. Mech. - ASCE, 123(12), 380-391.

20.

Sivia, D.S. (2006), Data Analysis: a Bayesian Tutorial, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

21.

Skilling, J. (1998), "Probabilistic data analysis; an introductory guide", J. Microscopy, 190(1-2), 28-36.

22.

Sohn, H. and Law, K.H. (1997), "A bayesian probabilistic approach for structure damage detection", Earthq. Eng. Struct. D., 26(12), 1259-1281.

23.

Sohn, H and Law, K.H. (2000), "Bayesian probabilistic damage detection of a reinforced concrete bridge column", Earthq. Eng. Struct. D., 29(8), 1131-1152.

24.

Straub D. (2009), "Stochastic modeling of deterioration processes through dynamic Bayesian networks", J. Eng. Mech. - ASCE, 135(10).

25.

Tien, I., Pozzi, M. and Der Kiureghian, A. (2013), "Assessing maximum structural response under seismic load using dynamic Bayesian network", (Eds., G. Deodatis, B.R. Ellingwood and D.M. Frangopol), Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures, Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Structural Safety And Reliability (ICOSSAR2013), New York, NY. 16-20 June 2013.

26.

Yuen, K.V. (2010), "Recent developments of Bayesian model class selection and applications in civil engineering", Struct. Saf., 32(5), 338-346.

27.

Zanet, M. (1997), Studio storico strutturale della Torre Civica della citta di Portogruaro. Laurea Thesis, Facolta di Ingegneria, University of Padova.

28.

Zonta, D., Glisic, B. and Adriaenssens, S., (2014) "Value of Information: impact of monitoring on decision making", Struct. Control Health Monit., 21(7), 1043-1056.