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Statistical Prediction for the Demand of Life Insurance Policy Loans
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 Title & Authors
Statistical Prediction for the Demand of Life Insurance Policy Loans
Lee, Woo-Joo; Park, Kyung-Ok; Kim, Hae-Kyung;
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 Abstract
This paper is concerned with the statistical analysis and development of stochastic models for the demand for life insurance policy loans. For these, firstly the characteristics of the regression trend, periodicity and dependence of the monthly demand for life insurance policy loans are investigated by a statistical analysis of the monthly demand data for the years 1999 through 2008. Secondly, the causal relationships between the demand for life insurance policy loans and the economic variables including unemployment rate and inflation rate for the period are investigated. The results show that inflation rate is main factor influencing policy loan demands. The overall evidence, however, failed to establish unidirectional causality relationships between the demand series and the other variables under study. Finally, based on these, univariate time series model and transfer function model where the demand series is related to one input series are derived, respectively, for the prediction of the demand for life insurance policy loans. A statistical procedure for using the model to predict the demand for life insurance policy loans is also proposed.
 Keywords
Policy loans;cross correlation analysis;transfer function model;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
 References
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