A Study for the Development of Motion Picture Box-office Prediction Model Kim, Yon-Hyong; Hong, Jeong-Han;
Interest has increased in academic research regarding key factors that drive box-office success as well as the ability to predict the box-office success of a movie from a commercial perspective. This study analyzed the relationship between key success factors of a movie and box office records based on movies released in 2010 in Korea. At the pre-production investment decision-making stage, the movie genre, motion picture rating, director power, and actor power were statistically significant. At the stage of distribution decision-making process after movie production, among other factors, the influence of star actors, number of screens, power of distributors, and social media turned out to be statistically significant. We verified movie success factors through the application of a Multinomial Logit Model that used the concept of choice probabilities. The Multinomial Logit Model resulted in a higher level of accuracy in predicting box-office success compared to the Artificial Neural Network and Discriminant Analysis.
Forecasting movie success;social media;regression model;Multinomial Logit Model;