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Bayesian Analysis for Heat Effects on Mortality
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 Title & Authors
Bayesian Analysis for Heat Effects on Mortality
Jo, Young-In; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho; Lee, Jae-Yong;
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In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model to simultaneously estimate the thresholds of each 6 cities. It was noted in the literature there was a dramatic increases in the number of deaths if the mean temperature passes a certain value (that we call a threshold). We estimate the difference of mortality before and after the threshold. For the hierarchical Bayesian analysis, some proper prior distribution of parameters and hyper-parameters are assumed. By combining the Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we constructed a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and the posterior inference was based on the posterior sample. The analysis shows that the estimates of the threshold are located at and the mortality around the threshold changes from -1% to 2~13%.
Hierarchical Bayesian model;threshold;Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm;
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혼합 조건부 종추출모형을 이용한 여름철 한국지역 극한기온의 위치별 밀도함수 추정,조성일;이재용;

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