JOURNAL BROWSE
Search
Advanced SearchSearch Tips
Bayesian Analysis for Heat Effects on Mortality
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
Bayesian Analysis for Heat Effects on Mortality
Jo, Young-In; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kim, Ho; Lee, Jae-Yong;
  PDF(new window)
 Abstract
In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model to simultaneously estimate the thresholds of each 6 cities. It was noted in the literature there was a dramatic increases in the number of deaths if the mean temperature passes a certain value (that we call a threshold). We estimate the difference of mortality before and after the threshold. For the hierarchical Bayesian analysis, some proper prior distribution of parameters and hyper-parameters are assumed. By combining the Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we constructed a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm and the posterior inference was based on the posterior sample. The analysis shows that the estimates of the threshold are located at and the mortality around the threshold changes from -1% to 2~13%.
 Keywords
Hierarchical Bayesian model;threshold;Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
1.
카드뮴 반응용량 곡선에서의 기준용량 평가를 위한 베이지안 분석연구,이민제;최태련;김정선;우해동;

응용통계연구, 2013. vol.26. 3, pp.453-470 crossref(new window)
1.
Bayesian Analysis of Dose-Effect Relationship of Cadmium for Benchmark Dose Evaluation, Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 2013, 26, 3, 453  crossref(new windwow)
 References
1.
Baccini, M., Biggeri, A., Accetta, G., Kosatsky, T., Katsouyanni, K., Analitis, A., Anderson, H. R., Bisanti, L., D'Ippoliti, D., Danova, J., Forsberg, B., Medina, S., Paldy, A., Rabczenko, D., Schindler, C. and Michelozzi, P. (2008). Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities, Epidemiology, 19, 711-719. crossref(new window)

2.
Chan, A. B. and Vasconcelos, N. (2009). Bayesian Poisson regression for crowd counting, 2009 IEEE 12th International Conference on Computer Vison, 547-548.

3.
Gossl, C. and Kuchenho, H. (2001). Bayesian analysis of logistic regression with an unknown change point and covariate measurement error, Statistics in Medicine, 20, 3109-3121.

4.
Khafri, S., Kazemnejad, A. and Eskandari, F. (2008). Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of bivariate poisson regression model, World Applied Sciences Journal, 4, 667-675.

5.
Kim, H., Kim, Y. and Hong, Y. C. (2003). The lag-effect pattern in the relationship of particulate air pollution to daily mortality in Seoul, Korea, International Journal of Biometeorology, 48, 25-30. crossref(new window)

6.
Muggeo, V. M. R. (2003). Estimating regression models with unknown break-points, Statistics in Medicine, 22, 3055-3071. crossref(new window)

7.
Muggeo, V. M. R. (2008). Modeling temperature effects on mortality: Multiple segmented relationships with common break points, Biostatistics, 9, 613-620. crossref(new window)

8.
Robert, C. P. and Casella, G. (2004). Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Springer, 2nd ed.

9.
Zanobetti, A. and Schwarts, J. (2008). Temperature and mortality in Nies US cites, Epidemiology, 19, 563-570. crossref(new window)