Detection and Forecast of Climate Change Signal over the Korean Peninsula

Title & Authors
Detection and Forecast of Climate Change Signal over the Korean Peninsula
Sohn, Keon-Tae; Lee, Eun-Hye; Lee, Jeong-Hyeong;

Abstract
The objectives of this study are the detection and forecast of climate change signal in the annual mean of surface temperature data, which are generated by MRI/JMA CGCM over the Korean Peninsula. MRI/JMA CGCM outputs consist of control run data(experiment with no change of $\small{CO_2}$ concentration) and scenario run data($\small{CO_2}$ 1%/year increase experiment to quadrupling) during 142 years for surface temperature and precipitation. And ECMWF reanalysis data during 43 years are used as observations. All data have the same spatial structure which consists of 42 grid points. Two statistical models, the Bayesian fingerprint method and the regression model with autoregressive error(AUTOREG model), are separately applied to detect the climate change signal. The forecasts up to 2100 are generated by the estimated AUTOREG model only for detected grid points.
Keywords
Climate change;temperature;MRI/JMA CGCM;AUTOREG model;Bayesian fingerprint method;
Language
Korean
Cited by
References
1.
국가과학기술자문회의 (2007). <기후변화의 현황과 전망>

2.
국립기상연구소 기후연구실 (2004). <한반도 기후 100년 변화와 미래 전망>

3.
Berliner, L. M., Levine, R. A. and Shea, D. J. (2000). Bayesian climate change assessment, Journal of Climate, 13, 3805-3820

4.
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B. and Jones, P. D. (2006). Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D12106

5.
Etheridge, D. M., Steele, L. P., Langenfelds, R. L., Francey, R. J., Barnola, J. M. and Morgan, V. I. (1996). Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric \$CO_2\$ over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and firn, Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 4115-4128

6.
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T. and Karl, T. (2001). A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 23947-23963

7.
Indermuhle, A., Stocker, T. F., Joos, F., Fischer, H., Smith, H. J., Wahlen, M., Deck, B., Mastroianni, D., Tschumi, J., Blunier, T., Meyer, R. and Stauffer, B. (1999). Holocene carbon-cycle dynamics based on \$CO_2\$ trapped in ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica, Nature, 398, 121-126

8.
IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001, http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc tar/wg1

9.
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm

10.
Neftel, A., Moor, E., Oeschger, H. and Stauffer, B. (1985). Evidence from polar ice cores for the increase in atmospheric \$CO_2\$ in the past 2 centuries, Nature, 315, 45-47

11.
Smith, T. M. and Reynolds, R. W. (2004). Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997), Journal of Climate, 17, 2466-2477