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The Term Structure and Predicting the Domestic Recessions
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 Title & Authors
The Term Structure and Predicting the Domestic Recessions
Kim, Tae-Ho; Song, Dae-Sub;
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 Abstract
Various methods have been suggested in developing the useful leading indicators to predict the actual realizations when time laps exist between policy plannings and future events. The recent economic crisis could have been relived if the information necessary to respond to the future evolutionary process is provided in advance. As the relations between the financial variables and the real economic activity become unstable because of the changes in the financial environment, this study attempts to estimate the capabilities of various internal and external term spreads in predicting the future business trend, followed by comparison and evaluation.
 Keywords
Recession probability;term spread;coincidence index;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
1.
실질 성장의 미래 변화 예측을 위한 정보변수,김태호;정재화;김민정;

응용통계연구, 2013. vol.26. 2, pp.253-265 crossref(new window)
1.
Information Variables for the Predictability of Future Changes in Real Growth, Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 2013, 26, 2, 253  crossref(new windwow)
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