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A Note on the Population Policy of 1983
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 Title & Authors
A Note on the Population Policy of 1983
Park, War-Lan; Jung, Ji-Won; Park, Hui-Chang; Lee, Suk-Hoon;
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All the policies and plans need to be carried out at the proper times in order that they would work properly for what they are made for. It is will known that statistics are one of the most useful tools in deciding the proper times for the policies. In this paper we show how to use statistics in evaluating the policies already carried with respect to the time when they were executed in dealing with the population policy we had in 1983 when the total fertility rate hit the population replacement level 2.1. Two methods have been tried to show that the policy carried in 1983 missed the proper changing time. The one is to make forecasting only with the data possible before 1982 and show how close they can be to the real situation of today. The other is to show what would happen if the policies aiming to suppress population growth had been changed or abandoned. Both results from two methods give some quantified information about the population policy of 1983. Especially the prediction tells that we could have forecasted the problem of low fertility of this century in 1983.
Population policy;fertility;
 Cited by
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통계청. <인구동태통계연보(총괄출생사명편)> 1980-2007년

통계청 (2006). <장래인구추계(2006)>

통계청. <2007년 생명표>

OECD. OECD Factbook 2008: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics

한국보건사회연구원 (1991). <인구정책30년>, 한국보건사회연구원