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A Comparison Study for Mortality Forecasting Models by Average Life Expectancy
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 Title & Authors
A Comparison Study for Mortality Forecasting Models by Average Life Expectancy
Jeong, Seung-Hwan; Kim, Kee-Whan;
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 Abstract
By use of a mortality forecasting model and a life table, forecasting the average life expectancy is an effective way to evaluate the future mortality level. There are differences between the actual values of average life expectancy at present and the forecasted values of average life expectancy in population projection 2006 from Statistics Korea. The reason is that the average life expectancy forecasts did not reflect the increasing speed of the actual ones. The main causes of the problem may be errors from judgment for projection, from choice, or use of a mortality forecasting model. In this paper, we focus on the choice of the mortality forecasting model to inspect this problem. Statistics Korea should take a mortality forecasting model with considerable investigation to proceed population projection 2011 without the errors observed in population projection 2006. We compare the five mortality forecasting models that are the LC(Lee and Carter) model used widely and its variants, and the HP8(Heligman and Pollard 8 parameter) model for handling death probability. We make average life expectancy forecasts by sex using modeling results from 2010 to 2030 and compare with that of the population projection 2006 during the same period. The average life expectancy from all five models are forecasted higher than that of the population projection 2006. Therefore, we show that the new average life expectancy forecasts are relatively suitable to the future mortality level.
 Keywords
Mortality forecasting model;average life expectancy;life table;Lee-Carter model;HP8 model;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
1.
정상 노년층의 동심성 및 편심성 수축 시 대뇌 피질신경원 흥분도 비교,강정일;최현;

The Journal of Korean Physical Therapy, 2012. vol.24. 4, pp.262-267
2.
기업생명표 작성에 관한 연구,유재홍;김기환;

Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society, 2013. vol.15. 1B, pp.165-175
1.
A modified Lee-Carter model based on the projection of the skewness of the mortality, Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, 2016, 29, 1, 41  crossref(new windwow)
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