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Intervention Analysis of Korea Tourism Data
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 Title & Authors
Intervention Analysis of Korea Tourism Data
Kim, Su-Yong; Seong, Byeong-Chan;
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This study analyzes inbound and outbound Korea tourism data through an intervention model. For the analysis, we adopt three intervention factors: (1) IMF bailout crisis in December 1997, (2) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) outbreak in March 2003, and (3) Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008. The empirical results show that only the SARS factor lowered inbound tourism from April 2003 with a drastic decline in May 2003 and gradually decaying since then. However, all three factors significantly lowered tourism in the case of outbound tourism. Especially, the effect of the IMF is shown to be permanent from December 1997 and the effects of SARS and the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy abrupt and temporary with a gradual decay.
Intervention model;ARIMA model;outlier;
 Cited by
Event Intervention이 일본, 중국 항공수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구,김선태;김민수;박상범;이준일;

한국항공운항학회지, 2013. vol.21. 4, pp.77-89 crossref(new window)
ARMA(p, q) 모형에서 멱변환의 재변환에 관한 연구 - 모의실험을 중심으로,강전훈;신기일;

응용통계연구, 2015. vol.28. 3, pp.511-527 crossref(new window)
계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 여행목적 별 제주 관광객 수 예측에 관한 연구,송준모;

Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 2016. vol.27. 3, pp.725-732 crossref(new window)
A study on demand forecasting for Jeju-bound tourists by travel purpose using seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model, Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society, 2016, 27, 3, 725  crossref(new windwow)
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