A Bayesian Prediction of the Generalized Pareto Model Huh, Pan; Sohn, Joong Kweon;
Rainfall weather patterns have changed due to global warming and sudden heavy rainfalls have become more frequent. Economic loss due to heavy rainfall has increased. We study the generalized Pareto distribution for modelling rainfall in Seoul based on data from 1973 to 2008. We use several priors including Jeffrey's noninformative prior and Gibbs sampling method to derive Bayesian posterior predictive distributions. The probability of heavy rainfall has increased over the last ten years based on estimated posterior predictive distribution.
Generalized Pareto distribution;Markov Chain Monte Carlo method;prior distribution;Bayesian predictive posterior distribution;rainfall model;
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