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A Probabilistic Risk-based Cost Estimation Model for Initial-Stage Decision Making on Apartment Remolding Projects
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 Title & Authors
A Probabilistic Risk-based Cost Estimation Model for Initial-Stage Decision Making on Apartment Remolding Projects
Lee, Dong-gun; Cha, Heesung;
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 Abstract
The current remodeling cost estimation process is not only dependent on the historical data of new building construction, but it also has a poor linkage with risk-based estimation approach. As such, there is a high risk of falling short of initial budget. To overcome this, a risk-based estimation approach is necessary by providing a probabilistic estimation in consideration of the potential risk factors in conducting the remodeling projects. In addition, the decision-making process should be linked with the risk-based estimation results in stead of intuitive and/or experience-based estimation. This study provides a probabilistic estimation process for residential remodeling projects by developing a detailed methodology in which a step-by-step approach can be achieved. The new proposed estimation approach can help in decision-making for remodeling projects in terms of whether to proceed or not, by effectively reflecting the potential risk factors in the early stage of the project. In addition, the study can enhance the reliability of the estimation results by developing a sustainable estimation process model where a risk-based evaluation can be accomplished by setting up the cost-risk relationship database structure.
 Keywords
Decision Making;Preliminary estimation;Probabilistic approach;Remodeling project;Risk-based;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
1.
Determining Value at Risk for Estimating Renovation Building Projects by Application of Probability-based Fuzzy Set Theory, Journal of Asian Architecture and Building Engineering, 2018, 17, 1, 63  crossref(new windwow)
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