Advanced SearchSearch Tips
A Study on the Development of Typhoon Track Forecast Model Based on the Past Track Data
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
A Study on the Development of Typhoon Track Forecast Model Based on the Past Track Data
Jin, Guo-Zhu; Song, Chae-Uk;
  PDF(new window)
This paper is aimed to develop a mathematical model for making the forecast information of typhoon`s movement such as the estimated movement direction and positions after 24 and 48 hours. The proposed model calculates such kind of information of a typhoon by similar past typhoon`s track data which are selected with three similarity criteria among the database of typhoons` tracks for past fifty years. We carried out a simulation forecast with No.14 typhoon formed in 1997, and found that the results of the proposed model were reasonable and it would be suitable for a simulation system for training mariners so that they can take suitable actions to evade the typhoons.
Typhoon′s forecasting model;Similarity criteria;Avoiding typhoon simulation;
 Cited by
A Study on the Development of Wind and Wave Model of Typhoon,;;;

한국항해항만학회지, 2004. vol.28. 9, pp.815-820 crossref(new window)
On the Development of Typhoon Avoidance Simulation System with the Evaluating Method by Seakeeping Performance of Ship,;;;

한국항해항만학회지, 2005. vol.29. 4, pp.299-304 crossref(new window)
Chen Lianshou and Ding Yihui(1979), 'General review of typhoon in West Pacific', Meteorological Publisher, China

Chen Lianshou and Shu Jiaxin(1980), 'A review of typhoon research and operational prediction in China', Symposium on Typhoons, Shanghai, China

Goerss, C. R. Sampson, and J. Gross(2004), 'A history of Western North Pacific tropical cyclone track forecast skill', Wea. Forecasting 2004

Hope, J. R. and C. J. Neumann(1969), 'An operational technique for relating existing tropical cyclone to past track', the sixth AMS Conference on Hunicanes, Miami, USA

Hope, J. R. and C. J. Neumann(1970), 'An operational technique for relating the movement of existing tropical cyclones to past track', Man Wea Rev., 98(12)

Wang Zhilie and Fei Liang(1987), 'Typhoon Forecast Manual', Meteorological Publisher, China