JOURNAL BROWSE
Search
Advanced SearchSearch Tips
Probabilistic Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
Probabilistic Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach
Long, Zhan-Jun; Lee, Seung-Keon; Lee, Sung-Jong; Jeong, Jae-Hun;
  PDF(new window)
 Abstract
Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.
 Keywords
risk analysis;ship stability;capsizing;safe basin;survival probability;nonlinear dynamics;
 Language
English
 Cited by
 References
1.
Ben, W. and Sampson, R.(2006), "Suitability of Stability Criteria Applied to Small Fishing Vessels and Associated Survivability Research Project 557"

2.
Francescutto, A. (2007), "The Intact Ship Stability Code Present status and future developments." Session A

3.
Gu, J. Y. (2004), "Nonlinear Rolling Motion of Ship in Random Beam Seas." Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol.12, No.4, pp. 273-279

4.
IMO (1987), "Recommendation on Resolution A.562(14) Research Project"

5.
Iqbal, K and Bulian, G. (2008), "A rational analysis of intact stability hazards involving small inland passenger ferries in Bangladesh." Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol.13, No.3, pp. 270-281 crossref(new window)

6.
Kobylinski, L. (2007), "Stability of ships: risk assessment due hazards created by forces of the sea". Hydronav 2007 Intern. Conference, pp. 51-62

7.
Kobylinski, L. (2008), "Stability and safety of ships:holistic and risk approach" Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications, Vol.1, No.1, pp. 11-16

8.
Konovessis, D. and Vassalos, D. (2007), "Risk-based design for damage survivability of passenger Ro-Ro vessels." lOS Press 54, pp. 129-144

9.
Lee, S. K and Surendran, S. (2005), "Roll performance of a small fishing vessel with live fish tank." Ocean Engineering, Vol.32, No.14, pp.1873-1885 crossref(new window)

10.
Lee, S. K Long, Z. J. (2009), "Risk assessment method of simulation-based for the intact ship stability." International Conference on Computational & Experimental Engineering and Sciences(ICCES'09). Phuket, Thailand, pp. 20-28

11.
Mamontov, E. and Naess, A. (2009), "An analytical-numerical method for fast evaluation of probability densities for transient solutions of nonlinear It's stochastic differential equations." International Journal of Engineering Science, Vol.47, No.1, pp.116-130 crossref(new window)

12.
Marta PEDISIC BUCA and SENJANOVIC, I. (2006), "Nonlinear ship rolling and capsizing." BRODO GRANDJA, Vol.57, No.4, pp. 321-331

13.
McTaggart, K A. (1992), "Wind effects on intact ship stability in beam seas." Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, Vol.44, No.1, pp. 2487-2498 crossref(new window)

14.
McTaggart, K. A. (1999), "Capsize Risk Assessment Using Fredyn Ship Motion Predictions Technical Memorandum"

15.
Neves, M. A. S. and Rodriuez, C. A. (2009), "A coupled non-linear mathematical model of parametric resonance of ships in head seas." Applied Mathematical Modelling, Vol.33, No.6, pp. 2630-2645 crossref(new window)

16.
Paik, J. K. and Thayamballi, A. K. (2007), "Ship-shaped offshore installations: design, building, and operation", New York, Cambridge University Press

17.
Senjanovic, I. and Cipric, G. (2000), "Survival analysis of fishing vessels rolling in rough seas", Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol.358, No.1771, pp.1943-1965 crossref(new window)

18.
Soliman, M. S. and Thompson, J. M. T. (1991), "Transient and steady state analysis of capsize phenomena", Applied Ocean Research, Vol.13, No.2, pp. 82-92 crossref(new window)

19.
Taylan, M. (2003), "Static and dynamic aspects of a capsize phenomenon", Ocean Engineering, Vol.30, No.3, pp. 331-350 crossref(new window)

20.
Wright, J. H. G. and Marshfield, W. B. (1980), "Ship roll response and capsize behaviour in beam seas", Transactions, Royal Institution of Naval Architects, Vol.122, pp. 129-148