JOURNAL BROWSE
Search
Advanced SearchSearch Tips
A Study on forecasting container volume of port using SD and ARIMA
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
A Study on forecasting container volume of port using SD and ARIMA
Kim, Jong-Kil; Pak, Ji-Yeong; Wang, Ying; Park, Sung-Il; Yeo, Gi-Tae;
  PDF(new window)
 Abstract
The forecasting of container volume which is the basis of port logistics facilities expansion has a great influence on development of an port. Based on this importance, various previous studies have presented methodology on container volume forecasting. The results of many previous studies pointed out the limitations of future forecasting based on past container volume and emphasized that more various factors should be considered to compensate this. Taking notice of this point, this study forecasted future container volume by using ARIMA model, time series analysis and System Dynamics (SD) method, a dynamic analysis technique and performed the comparative review with the forecast of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime affairs. Recently with rapid changes in economic and social environment, the non-linear change tendency for forecasting container traffic is presented as a new alternative to the country.
 Keywords
Container volume forecast;System dynamics;ARIMA analysis;Bass model;Vensim;
 Language
English
 Cited by
1.
SD기법에 의한 한.중.일 환적물동량 변화량 추정에 관한 연구,여기태;정현재;

한국항만경제학회지, 2011. vol.27. 4, pp.165-185
2.
SARIMA 모형을 이용한 우리나라 항만 컨테이너 물동량 예측,민경창;하헌구;

대한교통학회지, 2014. vol.32. 6, pp.600-614 crossref(new window)
1.
Forecasting the Korea's Port Container Volumes With SARIMA Model, Journal of Korean Society of Transportation, 2014, 32, 6, 600  crossref(new windwow)
2.
A Study on Estimating Container Throughput in Korean Ports using Time Series Data, Journal of Navigation and Port Research, 2016, 40, 2, 57  crossref(new windwow)
 References
1.
Choi, B.H.(2007), "A Study on the Relation Exchange Rate Volatility to Trading Volume of Container in Korea", Journal of Korea Port Economic Association, Vol. 23(1), pp.1-18

2.
Gwak, S.M.(2005), Chapter 3 Study on military application of system dynamics theory, Korea Research Institute for Strategy Army warfighting experiment in 2005 pp. 141-209

3.
Jung, J.H(2008), "Resource Demand/Supply and Price Forecasting-A Case of Nickel", Korean system dynamics society, Vol. 9 (1), pp.125-141

4.
Jang, B.G..Yang, H.J.(2005), "Estimation of Port Traffic in Korea", Journal of Korea Port Economic Association, Vol. 21(4), pp.255-274

5.
Jeon, C.Y., Song, J.M.(2006), "Analysis of Port Cargo through Use of Data Mining Techniques", Korea Maritime Institute, pp.1-129

6.
Jeon, I.S., Kim, H.J., Kim, J.W.(2004). "Estimatith rt Using Stated Preference Methodology",ng Container Traffic of New Incheon Outer-Sou Journal of Korea Port Economic Association, Vol. 20(2), pp.151-167

7.
Kim, C.B.(2007), "Forecasting the Trading Volumes of Marine Transport and Ports Logistics Policy-Using Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model-", Journal of Korea Port Economic Association, Vol. 23(1), pp.149-162

8.
Kim, J.H.(2008), "The Forecast of the Cargo Transportation for the North Port in Busan, using Time Series Models", Joutnal of Korea Port Economic Association, Vol. 24(2), pp.1-17

9.
Kim, J.H.(2008), "The forecasting of port-container volume in Korea", The Journal of Shipping and Logistics Vol. 59, pp.175-194

10.
Lyneis, J. (2000). System dynamics for market forecasting and structural analysis. System Dynamics Review, 16, 3-.25. crossref(new window)

11.
Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime affairs(2009), Forecasting report on port container traffic by item / Calculating loading and unloading capacity of TOC ports by the type of a ship, pp.231

12.
Mo, S.W.(2009), "The Effects of the Changes of Economic Variables on the Import Container Volume of Gwangyang Port", Journal of Korea Port Economic Association, Vol. 25(3), pp.269-282