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Analysis of Users' Satisfaction Utility for Precipitation Probabilistic Forecast Using Collective Value Score
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  • Journal title : Korean Management Science Review
  • Volume 32, Issue 4,  2015, pp.97-108
  • Publisher : The Korean Operations and Management Science Society
  • DOI : 10.7737/KMSR.2015.32.4.097
 Title & Authors
Analysis of Users' Satisfaction Utility for Precipitation Probabilistic Forecast Using Collective Value Score
Yoon, Seung Chul; Lee, Ki-Kwang;
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This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.
Contingency Table;Precipitation Probabilistic Forecast;Picnic Scenario;Threshold;Collective Value Score;Users' Utility;
 Cited by
이기광, "맥주배송게임에서 다구찌 방법에 의한 불확실 정보 기반 의사결정 연구", 한국산업경영시스템학회지, 제33권, 제3호(2010), pp.162-168.

이기광, "기상요인이 교통사고 발생에 미치는 영향 분석 : 서울지역을 중심으로", 한국산업경영시스템학회지, 제38권, 제1호(2015), pp.1-7.

이기광, 이중우, "가치스코어 모형을 이용한 기상정보의 기업 의사결정에 미치는 영향 평가", 한국산업경영시스템학회지, 제30권, 제2호(2007), pp.89-98.

이중우, 고광근, 권태순, 이기광, "국내 항공운항에서 기상현상이 결항 및 지연에 미치는 영향 분석", 한국항공운항학회지, 제19권, 제1호(2011), pp.29-37.

이중우, 이기광, "레저산업의 고객관계관리 문제에서 기상예보의 정보가치를 최대화시키는 의사결정전략 분석", 경영과학, 제27권, 제1호(2010), pp.33-43.

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