Development of a Stochastic Model for Wind Power Production

- Journal title : Korean Management Science Review
- Volume 33, Issue 1, 2016, pp.35-47
- Publisher : The Korean Operations and Management Science Society
- DOI : 10.7737/KMSR.2016.33.1.035

Title & Authors

Development of a Stochastic Model for Wind Power Production

Ryu, Jong-hyun; Choi, Dong Gu;

Ryu, Jong-hyun; Choi, Dong Gu;

Abstract

Generation of electricity using wind power has received considerable attention worldwide in recent years mainly due to its minimal environmental impact. However, volatility of wind power production causes additional problems to provide reliable electricity to an electrical grid regarding power system operations, power system planning, and wind farm operations. Those problems require appropriate stochastic models for the electricity generation output of wind power. In this study, we review previous literatures for developing the stochastic model for the wind power generation, and propose a systematic procedure for developing a stochastic model. This procedure shows a way to build an ARIMA model of volatile wind power generation using historical data, and we suggest some important considerations. In addition, we apply this procedure into a case study for a wind farm in the Republic of Korea, Shinan wind farm, and shows that our proposed model is helpful for capturing the volatility of wind power generation.

Keywords

Wind Power Production;Stochastic Modeling;Time Series Analysis;Renewable Energy;

Language

Korean

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