JOURNAL BROWSE
Search
Advanced SearchSearch Tips
Development of a Stochastic Model for Wind Power Production
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
  • Journal title : Korean Management Science Review
  • Volume 33, Issue 1,  2016, pp.35-47
  • Publisher : The Korean Operations and Management Science Society
  • DOI : 10.7737/KMSR.2016.33.1.035
 Title & Authors
Development of a Stochastic Model for Wind Power Production
Ryu, Jong-hyun; Choi, Dong Gu;
  PDF(new window)
 Abstract
Generation of electricity using wind power has received considerable attention worldwide in recent years mainly due to its minimal environmental impact. However, volatility of wind power production causes additional problems to provide reliable electricity to an electrical grid regarding power system operations, power system planning, and wind farm operations. Those problems require appropriate stochastic models for the electricity generation output of wind power. In this study, we review previous literatures for developing the stochastic model for the wind power generation, and propose a systematic procedure for developing a stochastic model. This procedure shows a way to build an ARIMA model of volatile wind power generation using historical data, and we suggest some important considerations. In addition, we apply this procedure into a case study for a wind farm in the Republic of Korea, Shinan wind farm, and shows that our proposed model is helpful for capturing the volatility of wind power generation.
 Keywords
Wind Power Production;Stochastic Modeling;Time Series Analysis;Renewable Energy;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
 References
1.
김세헌, "전력산업에서의 경영과학의 응용", 경영과학의 응용, 제1권, 제1호(1984), pp.17-25.

2.
김영경, 장병만, "풍력발전사업 에너지 생산량 산정 오차가 사업성지표에 미치는 영향 및 AHP를 이용한 중요인자 분석", 경영과학회지, 제30권, 제2호(2013), pp.1-10.

3.
산업통상자원부, 제4차 신재생에너지 기본계획, 2014.

4.
이중우, 고광근, 이기광, "발전용량 및 풍속에 따른 국내 풍력 발전단지의 효율성 분석", 경영과학, 제30권, 제2호(2013), pp.97-106.

5.
Aksoy, H., Z.F. Toprak, A. Aytek, N.E. Unal, "Stochastic generation of hourly mean wind speed data," Renewable Energy, Vol.29, No.14 (2004), pp.2111-2131. crossref(new window)

6.
Billinton, R., H. Chen, and R. Ghajar, "Timeseries models for reliability evaluation of power systems including wind energy," Microelectronic Reliability, Vol.36, No.9(1996), pp.1253-1261. crossref(new window)

7.
Brown, B.G., R.W. Katz, and A.H. Murphy, "Time Series Models to Simulate and Forecast Wind Speed and Wind Power," Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Vol.23 (1984), pp.1184-1195. crossref(new window)

8.
Box, G.E.P., G.M. Jenkins, and G.G. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis : Forecasting and Control, 3rd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ : Prentice Hall, 1994.

9.
Cerisola S., A. Baillo, J.M. Fernandez-Lopez, A. Ramos, and R. Gollmer, "Stochastic Power Generation Unit Commitment in Electricity Markets : A Novel Formulation and a Comparison of Solution Methods," Operations Research, Vol.57, No.1(2009), pp.32-46. crossref(new window)

10.
Chen, P., T. Pedersen, B. Bak-Jensen, and Z. Chen, "ARIMA-Based Time Series Model of Stochastic Wind Power Generation," IEEE Transaction on power systems, Vol.25, No.2 (2010) pp.667-676.

11.
Chen, P., P. Siano, B. Bak-Jensen, and Z. Chen, "Stochastic Optimization of Wind Turbine Power Factor Using Stochastic Model of Wind Power," IEEE Transaction on sustainable energy, Vol.1, No.1(2010), pp.19-29. crossref(new window)

12.
Constantinescu, E.M., V.M. Zavala, M. Rocklin, S. Lee, and M. Anitescu, "A Computational Framework for Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Optimization in Unit Commitment with Wind Power Generation," IEEE Transaction on power systems, Vol. 26, No.1(2011), pp.431-441. crossref(new window)

13.
Ehrenmann, A. and Y. Smeers, "Generation Capacity Expansion in a Risky Environment : A Stochastic Equilibrium Analysis," Operations Research, Vol.59, No.6(2011), pp.1332-1346. crossref(new window)

14.
Harsha, P. and M. Dehleh, "Optimal Management and Sizing of Energy Storage Under Dynamic Pricing for the Efficient Integration of Renewable Energy," IEEE Transaction on power systems, Vol.30, No.3(2015), pp.1164-1182. crossref(new window)

15.
IEA, World Energy Outlook Special Report : Energy and Climate Change, Technical Report, International Energy Agency, 2015.

16.
Kim, J.H. and W.B. Powell, "Optimal energy commitments with storage and intermittent supply," Operations Research, Vol.59, No.6 (2011), pp.1347-1360. crossref(new window)

17.
Kitagawa, T. and T. Nomura, "A wavelet-based method to generate artificial wind fluctuation data," Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, Vol.91, No.7(2003), pp.943-964. crossref(new window)

18.
Meibom, P., R. Barth, B. Hasche, H. Brand, C. Weber, and M. O'Malley, "Stochastic Optimization Model to Study the Operational Impacts of High Wind Penetrations in Ireland," IEEE Transaction on power systems, Vol.26, No.3(2011), pp.1367-1379. crossref(new window)

19.
Negra, N.B., O. Holmstrom, B. Bak-Jensen, and P. Sorensen, "Model of a synthetic wind speed time series generator," Wind Energy, Vol.11, No.2(2008), pp.193-209. crossref(new window)

20.
Papaefthymiou, G. and B. Klockl, "MCMC for wind power simulation," IEEE Transaction on Energy Conversion, Vol.23, No.1 (2008), pp.234-240. crossref(new window)

21.
Papavasiliou, A. and S.S. Oren, "Multiarea Stochastic Unit Commitment for High Wind Penetration in a Transmission Constrained Network," Operations Research, Vol.61, No.3 (2013), pp.578-592. crossref(new window)

22.
Papavasiliou, A., S.S. Oren, and I. Aravena, "Stochastic modeling of multi-area wind power production," Proceeding in IEEE 48th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, (2015), pp.2616-2626.

23.
Shamshad, A., M.A. Bawadi, W.M.A. Wan Hussin, T.A. Majid, and S.A.M. Sanusi, "First and Second order Markov Chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series," Energy, Vol.30, No.5(2005), pp. 693-708. crossref(new window)

24.
Torres, J.L., A. Garcia, M. De Blas, and A. De Francisco, "Forecast of hourly average wind speed with ARMA models in Navarre (Spain)," Solar Energy, Vol.79, No.1(2005), pp.65-77. crossref(new window)

25.
Tuohy, A., P. Meibom, E. Denny, and M. O'Malley, "Unit Commitment for Systems with High Wind Penetration," IEEE Transaction on power systems, Vol.24, No.2(2008), pp.592-601.

26.
Worgin, S. and D.F. Gayme, "Optimizing Storage Siting, Sizing, and Technology Portfolios in Transmission Constrained Networks," IEEE Transaction on power systems, Vol.PP, No.99(2014), pp.1-10.

27.
Wu, O.Q. and R. Kapuscinski, "Curtailing Intermittent Generation in Electrical Systems," Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, Vol.15, No.4(2013), pp. 578-595. crossref(new window)

28.
Zhou, Y., A. Scheller-Wolf, N Secomandi, and S. Smith, "Managing Wind-based Electricity Generation in the Presence of Storage and Transmission Capacity," 2014, Available at SSRN : http://ssrn.com/abstract=1962414 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1962414. crossref(new window)