Advanced SearchSearch Tips
Changes in the Attributable Burden of High Temperatures on Deaths
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
Changes in the Attributable Burden of High Temperatures on Deaths
Ha, Jongsik;
  PDF(new window)
Objectives: Due to global warming resulting from climate change, there has been increasing interest in the relationship between temperature and mortality. These temperature-related deaths depend on diverse conditions related to a given place and person, as well as on time. This study examined changes in the impact of high temperatures on death in summer, using the effect and burden of elevated temperatures on deaths in Seoul and Daegu. Methods: A Poisson regression model was used to estimate short-term temperature effects on mortality. Temperature-related risks were divided into three time periods of equal length (1996-2000, 2001-2005, and 2006-2010). In addition, in order to compare the impact of high temperatures on deaths, this study calculated the proportion of attributable deaths to population, which simultaneously considers the threshold and the slope above the threshold. Results: The effect and burden of high temperatures on deaths is high in Daegu. However, the impact (i.e. the effect and burden) of elevated summer temperatures on deaths has declined over the past 15 years. Sensitivity analyses using alternative thresholds show the robustness of these findings. Conclusion: This study suggests that the attributable burden of high temperatures on deaths to be more plausible than relative risk or threshold for comparing the health impact of high temperatures across populations. Moreover, these results contain important implications for the development or the adjustment of present and future strategies and policies for controlling the temperature-related health burden on populations.
attributable burden;death;high temperature;
 Cited by
무등산 주요 탐방로에서 테르펜 분포특성 연구,이대행;김민희;박옥현;박강수;안상수;서희정;진승현;정원삼;강영주;안기완;김은선;

한국환경보건학회지, 2013. vol.39. 3, pp.211-222 crossref(new window)
Basu R, Samet JM. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews. 2002; 24: 190-202. crossref(new window)

Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor GR, et al. Association between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature. Climatic Change. 2009; 92: 299-341. crossref(new window)

Kosatsky T. The 2003 heat wave European heat waves. Euro Surveill. 2005; 10: 148-149.

Kaiser R, Tertre AL, Schwarta J, et al. The effect of the 1995 heat wave in chicago on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Am J Public Health. 2007; 97: S158-S162. crossref(new window)

Kysely J, Kim J. Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: How exceptional was the 1994 heat wave? Climate Res. 2009; 38: 105-116. crossref(new window)

Luber G, McGeehin M. Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events. Am J Prev Med. 2008; 35: 429-435. crossref(new window)

Basu R. High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environmental Health. 2009; 8: 40. crossref(new window)

Hajat S, Kosatky T. Heat-related mortality: a review and exploration of heterogeneity. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health. 2010; 64: 753- 760. crossref(new window)

Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature. 2005; 438: 310-317. crossref(new window)

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge, University Press. 2007. Cambridge, UK.

Chestnut LG, Breffle WS, Smith JB, Kalkstein LS. Analysis of differences in hot-weather-related mortality across 44 U.S. metropolitan areas. Environmental Science & Policy. 1998; 1: 59-70.

Donaldson GC, Keatinge WR, Nayha S. Changes in summer temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North Carolina, South Finland, and southeast England. Environ Res. 2003; 91: 1-7. crossref(new window)

Kalkstein LS and Greene JS. An evaluation of climate/ mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of a climate change. Environ Health Perspect. 1997; 105: 84-93. crossref(new window)

Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Cordioli E, et al. Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. BMJ. 2000; 321: 670- 673. crossref(new window)

McGeehin MA, Mirabelli M. The potential impact of climate variability and change on temperaturerelated morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect. 2001; 109: 185-189. crossref(new window)

Seretakis D et al. Changing seasonality of mortality from coronary heart disease. JAMA. 1997; 278: 1012-1014. crossref(new window)

Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ. Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect. 2003; 111: 1712-1718. crossref(new window)

Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ. Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities. Int J Biometeorol. 2003; 47: 166-175.

Linares C and Diaz J. Impact of high temperatures on hospital admissions: comparative analysis with previous studies about mortality (Madrid). Eur J Public Health. 2008; 18: 317-322. crossref(new window)

Michelozzi P, Accetta G, De Sario M, et al. High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2009; 179: 383-389. crossref(new window)

Schwartz J, Samet JM, Patz JA. Hospital admissions for heart disease: the effects of temperature and humidity. Epidemiology. 2004; 15: 755-761. crossref(new window)

Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, et al. Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology. 2008; 19: 711-719. crossref(new window)

Anderson BG, Bell ML. Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold, and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiology. 2009; 20: 205-213. crossref(new window)

McMichael AJ, Wilkinson P, Kovats RS, et al. International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project. Int J Epidemiol. 2008; 37: 1121-1131. crossref(new window)

Armstrong B. Models for the relationship between ambient temperature and daily mortality. Epidemiology. 2006; 17: 624-631. crossref(new window)

Braga AF, Zanobetti A, Schwarts J. The time course of weather-related deaths. Epidemiology. 2001; 12: 662-667. crossref(new window)

Hajat S, Armstrong BG, Gouveia N, Wilkinson P. Mortality displacement of heat-related deaths: a comparison of Delhi, Sao Paulo, and London. Epidemiology. 2005; 16: 613-620. crossref(new window)

Yu W, Mengersen K, Hu W, et al. Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories. Environmental Pollution. 2011; 159: 1789-1793. crossref(new window)

Kim H, Ha J, Park J. High temperature, heat index, and mortality in 6 major cities in South Korea. International Arch Environ Occup Health. 2006; 61: 265-270. crossref(new window)

Chung JY, Honda Y, Hong YC, Pan XC, Guo YL, Kim H. Ambient temperature and mortality: An international study in four capital cities of East Asia. Sci Total Environ. 2009; 408: 390-396. crossref(new window)

Ha J, Kim H, Hajat S. Effect of previous-winter mortality on the association between summer temperature and mortality in South Korea. Environ Health Perspect. 2011; 119: 542-546. crossref(new window)

Barnett AG, Tong S, Clements AC. What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality? Environ Res. 2010; 110: 604-611. crossref(new window)

Akaike H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principal. In: Petrov BN, Caski F, editors. Second International Symposium on Information Theory. Budapest: Akademial Kiado; 1973. pp, 267. 81.

Honda Y, Kabuto M, Ono M, Uchiyama I. Determination of optimum daily maximum temperature using climate data. Environ Health and Prev Med. 2007; 12: 209-216. crossref(new window)

Bruzzi P, Green SB, Byar DP, et al. Estimating the population attributable risk for multiple risk factors using case-control data. Am J Epidemiol. 1985; 122: 904-914. crossref(new window)

Dominici F, McDermott A, Hastie T. Improved semiparametric time series models of air pollution and mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2004; 99: 938-948. crossref(new window)

Pattenden S, Nikiforov B, Armstrong BG. Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health. 2003; 57: 628- 633. crossref(new window)

Kim SY, Lee JT, Hong YC, et al. Determining the threshold effect of ozone on daily mortality: an analysis of ozone and mortality in Seoul, Korea, 1995-1999. Environ Res. 2004; 94: 113-119. crossref(new window)

Ha J, Shin Y, Kim H. Distributed lag effects in the relationship between temperature and mortality in three major cities in South Korea. Sci Total Environ. 2011; 409: 3274-3280. crossref(new window)

Armstrong BG, Chalabi Z, Fenn B, et al. Association of mortality with high temperatures in a temperate climate: England and Wales. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2011; 65: 340-345. crossref(new window)

Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kovats S, Wilkinson P. The effect of high temperatures on cause-specific mortality in England and Wales. Occup Environ Med. 2012; 69: 56-61. crossref(new window)

Curriero FC, Heiner KS, Samet JM, et al. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol. 2002; 155: 80-87. crossref(new window)

Kysel J, Kriz B. Decreased impacts of the 2003 heat waves on mortality in the Czech Republic: an improved response? Int J Biometeorol. 2008; 52: 733-745. crossref(new window)

Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention. Heat-related illnesses and deaths-United States, 1994-1995. MMWR. 1995; 44: 465-468.

Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention. Heat-related mortality-Chicago, July 1995. MMWR. 1995; 44: 577-579.

Centers for Disease and Control and Prevention. Heat-wave-related mortality-Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 1995. MMWR. 1996; 45: 505-507.

Kilbourne EM, Choi K, Jones TS, Thacker SB. Risk factors for heatstroke: a case-control study. JAMA. 1982; 247: 3332-3336. crossref(new window)

Rogot E, Sorlie PD, Backlund E. Air-conditioning and mortality in hot weather. Am J Epidemiol. 1992; 136: 106-116. crossref(new window)

Ministry of Health and Welfare. Korea National Health Accounts and Total Health Expenditure in 2010. 2011;

Medina-Ramon M, Schwartz J. Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities. Occup Environ Med. 2007; 64: 827-833. crossref(new window)

Ren C, Williams GM, Morawska L, et al. Ozone modifies association between temperature and cardiovascular mortality: analysis of the NMMAPS data. Occup Environ Med. 2008; 65: 255-260. crossref(new window)

Basu R, Ostro BD. A multicounty analysis identifying the populations vulnerable to mortality associated with high ambient temperature in California. Am J Epidemiol. 2008; 168: 632-637. crossref(new window)

Zanobetti A, Schwartz J. Temperature and mortality in nine US cities. Epidemiology. 2008; 19: 563- 570. crossref(new window)

Kovats RS, Hajat S. Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu Rev Public Health. 2008; 29: 41-55. crossref(new window)

Huang C, Barnett AG, Wang X, et al. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review. Environ Health Perspect.. 2011; 119: 1681-1690. crossref(new window)