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Projection on First Flowering Date of Cherry, Peach and Pear in 21st Century Simulated by WRFv3.4 Based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios
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  • Journal title : Atmosphere
  • Volume 25, Issue 4,  2015, pp.693-706
  • Publisher : Korean Meteorological Society
  • DOI : 10.14191/Atmos.2015.25.4.693
 Title & Authors
Projection on First Flowering Date of Cherry, Peach and Pear in 21st Century Simulated by WRFv3.4 Based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios
Hur, Jina; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Shim, Kyo-Moon;
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 Abstract
A shift of first fowering date (FFD) of spring blossoms (cherry, peach and pear) over the northest Asia under global warming is investiaged using dynamically downscaled daily temperature data with 12.5 km resolution. For the study, we obatained gridded daily data with Historical (1981~2010), and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2021~2100) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which were produced by WRFv3.4 in conjunction with HadGEM2-AO. A change on FFDs in 21st century is estimated by applying daily outputs of WRFv3.4 to DTS phonological model. Prior to projection on future climate, the performances of both WRFv3.4 and DTS models are evaluated using spatial distribution of climatology and SCR diagram (Normalized standard deviation-Pattern correlation coefficient-Root mean square difference). According to the result, WRFv3.4 and DTS models well simulated a feature of the terrain following characteristics and a general pattern of observation with a marigin of and 5~6 days. The analysis reveals a projected advance in FFDs of cherry, peach and pear over the northeast Asia by 2100 of 15.4 days (9.4 days). 16.9 days (10.4 days) and 15.2 days (9.5 days), respectively, compared to the Historical simulation due to a increasing early spring (Februrary to April) temperature of about () under the RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5) scenarios. This indicates that the current flowering of the cherry, peach and pear over analysis area in middle or end of April is expected to start blooming in early or middle of April, at the end of this century. The present study shows the dynamically downscaled daily data with high-resolution is helpeful in offering various useful information to end-users as well as in understanding regional climate change.
 Keywords
RCP scenario;cherry first flowering date;peach first flowering date;pear first flowering date;regional climate projection;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
1.
Assessment and prediction of the first-flowering dates for the major fruit trees in Korea using a multi-RCM ensemble, International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 37, 3, 1603  crossref(new windwow)
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