Inverse Model Parameter Estimation Based on Sensitivity Analysis for Improvement of PM10 Forecasting

Title & Authors
Inverse Model Parameter Estimation Based on Sensitivity Analysis for Improvement of PM10 Forecasting
Yu, Suk Hyun; Koo, Youn Seo; Kwon, Hee Yong;

Abstract
In this paper, we conduct sensitivity analysis of parameters used for inverse modeling in order to estimate the PM10 emissions from the 16 areas in East Asia accurately. Parameters used in sensitivity analysis are R, the observational error covariance matrix, and B, a priori (background) error covariance matrix. In previous studies, it was used with the predetermined parameter empirically. Such a method, however, has difficulties in estimating an accurate emissions. Therefore, an automatically determining method for the most suitable value of R and B with an error measurement criteria and posteriori emissions accuracy is required. We determined the parameters through a sensitivity analysis, and improved the accuracy of posteriori emissions estimation. Inverse modeling methods used in the emissions estimation are pseudo inverse, NNLS (Nonnegative Least Square), and BA(Bayesian Approach). Pseudo inverse has a small error, but has negative values of emissions. In order to resolve the problem, NNLS is used. It has a unrealistic emissions, too. The problems are resolved with BA(Bayesian Approach). We showed the effectiveness and the accuracy of three methods through case studies.
Keywords
Inverse Model;Sensitivity Analysis;$\small{PM_{10}}$ Forecasting;
Language
Korean
Cited by
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