Development for City Bus Dirver`s Accident Occurrence Prediction Model Based on Digital Tachometer Records

Title & Authors
Development for City Bus Dirver`s Accident Occurrence Prediction Model Based on Digital Tachometer Records
Kim, Jung-yeul; Kum, Ki-jung;

Abstract
This study aims to develop a model by which city bus drivers who are likely to cause an accident can be figured out based on the information about their actual driving records. For this purpose, from the information about the actual driving records of the drivers who have caused an accident and those who have not caused any, significance variables related to traffic accidents are drawn, and the accuracy between models is compared for the classification models developed, applying a discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. In addition, the developed models are applied to the data on other drivers` driving records to verify the accuracy of the models. As a result of developing a model for the classification of drivers who are likely to cause an accident, when deceleration ($\small{X_{deceleration}}$) and acceleration to the right ($\small{Y_{right}}$) are simultaneously in action, this variable was drawn as the optimal factor variable of the classification of drivers who had caused an accident, and the prediction model by discriminant analysis classified drivers who had caused an accident at a rate up to 62.8%, and the prediction model by logistic regression analysis could classify those who had caused an accident at a rate up to 76.7%. In addition, as a result of the verification of model predictive power of the models showed an accuracy rate of 84.1%.
Keywords
Digital Tachometer Records;City Bus Drivers;Acceleration;Discriminant Analysis;Logistic Regression Analysis;
Language
Korean
Cited by
References
1.
Bagadadi O. and Varhelyi A.(2011), "Jerky driving -An indicator of accident proneness," Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 43, pp. 1359-1363.

2.
Cho J. H.(2008), "Development of a Real-time Safe Driving Management System," University of Kookmin, Ph. D. Dissertation.

3.
Cho J. H. and Lee W. S.(2007), "Development of a Safe Driving Management System," Transactions of Korea Society of Automotive Engineers, vol. 15, no. 1, pp.71-77.

4.
Hwang S. Ch.(2000), "A Study on the Causes of Traffic Casualties and Preventive Countermeasures," Dongguk University, Master's degree thesis.

5.
Lee H. S. and An B. J.(2006), "A Factor Analysis of Traffic Accidents Through Traffic Safety Diagnosis Results," Journal of the Korean Society of Safety, vol. 21, no. 2, pp.128-137.

6.
Oh J. S.(2011), "Discrimination for Reckless Drivers through Personality and Attitude Measurement : Developing a Psychological Test and Its Criteria for Driver Discrimination," Chungbuk National University, Ph. D. Dissertation.

7.
Oh J. T. and Lee S. Y.(2009), "A Study of the Weight value to Risky Driving Type," International Journal of Highway Engineering, vol. 11, no. 1, pp.105-115.

8.
Park J. H. and Lee S. Ch.(1997), "Analysis of Traffic Accident Proneness by Drivers' Variables," Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issues, vol. 3, no. 1, pp.143-157.

9.
af Wahlberg. AE(2004), "The stability of driver acceleration behavior, and a replication of its relation to bus accidents," Accident Analysis and Prevention, vol. 36, pp. 83-92.

10.
Zegeer C., Huang H., Hummer J., Stutts J. and Rodgman E.(1993), "Characteristics and Solutions Related to Bus Transit Accidents," Federal Transit Administrationas.