Advanced SearchSearch Tips
A Development of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Network (BN)
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
A Development of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Network (BN)
Kim, Jin-Young; Kim, Jin-Guk; Choi, Byoung-Han; Kwon, Hyun-Han;
  PDF(new window)
Dam risk analysis requires a systematic process to ensure that hydrologic variables (e.g. precipitation, discharge and water surface level) contribute to each other. However, the existing dam risk approach showed a limitation in assessing the interdependencies across the variables. This study aimed to develop Bayesian network based dam risk analysis model to better characterize the interdependencies. It was found that the proposed model provided advantages which would enable to better identify and understand the interdependencies and uncertainties over dam risk analysis. The proposed model also provided a scenario-based risk evaluation framework which is a function of the failure probability and the consequence. This tool would give dam manager a framework for prioritizing risks more effectively.
Bayesian Network;dam risk analysis;uncertainty;interdependency;
 Cited by
Bowles, D.S. (1988). "Verde River Risk Assessment: an Interim Solution Study." paper presented at the 8th annual USCOLD Meeting, Phoenix, AZ, January.

Digest DG471 (2002). "Low-rise building foundations on soft ground, Building Research Establishment."

Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S., and Rubin, D.B. (2004). Bayesian Data Analysis. CHAPMAN&HALL/CRC.

Haimes, Y.Y. (1988). "Alternatives to the precommensuration of costs, benefits, risk. and time." Journal of Water Resources Planning and management, ASCE, New York.

Hsu, Y.C., Tung, Y.K., and Kuo, J.T. (2011). "Evaluation of dam overtopping probability induced by flood and wind." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 35-49. crossref(new window)

Jan C. Grygier, and Jery R. Stedinger (1985). "Algorithms for Optimizing Hydropower System Operation." Journal ofWater Resources Research, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 1-10. crossref(new window)

Jensen, J. (2001). "Genetic Evaluation of Dairy Cattle Using Test-Day Models." Journal of Dairy Science, Vol. 84, No. 12, pp. 2803-2812. crossref(new window)

Karlsson, P., and Haimes, Y. (1989). "Risk Assessment of Extreme Events: Application." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., Vol. 115, No. 3, pp. 299-320. crossref(new window)

Kreuzer, H., and Bury, K. (1984). "A probability based evaluation of the safety and risk of existing dams, Proceedings of the International Conference on Safety of Dams." Coimbra, April 23-28, Edited by J. Laginha Serafim, University of Coimbra, Portugal.

Kuo, J.T., Hsu, Y.C., Tung, Y.K., Yeh, K.C., and Wu, J.D. (2008). "Dam overtopping risk assessment considering inspection program." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 303-313. crossref(new window)

Kwon, H.H., and Moon, Y.I. (2006). "Improvement of Overtopping Risk Evaluations Using Probabilistic Concepts for Existing Dams, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment." Springer-Verlag, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 223-237. crossref(new window)

Kwon, H.H., Moon, Y.I., and Khalil, A.F. (2007). "Nonparametric Monte Carlo Simulation for Flood Frequency Curve Derivation: An Application to a KOREAN Watershed." Journal of the AmericanWater Resources Association, Vol. 43, No. 5, pp. 1316-1328. crossref(new window)

Kwon, H.-H., Kim, J.-G., Lee, J.-S., and Na, B.-K. (2012). "Uncertainty Assessment of Single Event Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Bayesian Model." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 45, No. 5, pp. 505-516. crossref(new window)

Lee, J.Y., Lee, J.S., and Kim, K.Y. (2014). "Prediction of Loss of Life in Downstream due to Dam Break Flood." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 47, No. 10, pp. 879-889. crossref(new window)

Na, B.K., Kim, J.Y., Kwon, H.H., and Lim, J.Y. (2014). "Improvement of Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis Model Considering Uncertainty of Hydrologic Analysis Process." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 47, No. 10, pp. 853-865. crossref(new window)

Nelsen, R.B. (2006). "An Introduction to copulas." Springer, New York, pp. 109-155.

Pearl, J. (1988). "Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligence Systems." Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1988

Prendergast, J.D. (1979). "Probabilistic Concept for Gravity Dam Analysis." Special Rep, M-265, Construction Engineering Research Lab, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Champaign.

Sin, C.S., Ryu, G.J., Jo, K.S., and Bae, B.W. (2007). "Improvement of Hydrological Safety Evaluation Gideline for Existing Dams." Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, KWRA, Vol. 40, No. 10, pp. 44-52.

Sklar, K. (1959). "Fontions de reprartition a n dimensions et leurs marge." Publ. Inst. Statis. Univ. Paris 8, pp. 11.

Srivastava, A. (2008). "Generalized event tree algorithm and software for dam safety risk analysis." Utah State University.

Thompson, K.D., Stedinger, J.R., and Heath, D.C. (1997). "Evaluation and presentation of dam failure and flood risks." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 123. No. 4, pp. 216-227. crossref(new window)