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The Uncertainty of Extreme Rainfall in the Near Future and its Frequency Analysis over the Korean Peninsula using CMIP5 GCMs
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 Title & Authors
The Uncertainty of Extreme Rainfall in the Near Future and its Frequency Analysis over the Korean Peninsula using CMIP5 GCMs
Yoon, Sun-kwon; Cho, Jaepil;
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This study performed prediction of extreme rainfall uncertainty and its frequency analysis based on climate change scenarios by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the selected nine-General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the near future (2011-2040) over the Korean Peninsula (KP). We analysed uncertainty of scenarios by multiple model ensemble (MME) technique using non-parametric quantile mapping method and bias correction method in the basin scale of the KP. During the near future, the extreme rainfall shows a significant gradually increasing tendency with the annual variability and uncertainty of extreme ainfall in the RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition to the probability rainfall frequency (such as 50 and 100-year return periods) has increased by 4.2% to 10.9% during the near future in 2040. Therefore, in the longer-term water resources master plan, based on the various climate change scenarios (such as CMIP5 GCMs) and its uncertainty can be considered for utilizing of the support tool for decision-makers in water-related disasters management.
CMIP5;GCMs;extreme rainfall;uncertainty;frequency analysis;
 Cited by
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