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Drought Frequency Analysis Using Hidden Markov Chain Model and Bivariate Copula Function
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 Title & Authors
Drought Frequency Analysis Using Hidden Markov Chain Model and Bivariate Copula Function
Chun, Si-Young; Kim, Yong-Tak; Kwon, Hyun-Han;
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This study applied a probabilistic-based hidden Markov model (HMM) to better characterize drought patterns. In addition, a copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis was employed to further investigate return periods of the current drought condition in year 2015. The obtained results revealed that western Kangwon area was generally more vulnerable to drought risk than eastern Kangwon area using the 40-year data. Imjin-river watershed including Cheorwon area was the most vulnerable area in terms of severe drought events. Four stations in Han-river watershed showed a joint return period exceeding 1,000 years associated with the drought duration and severity in 2014-2015. Especially, current drought status in Northern Han-river and Imjin-river watershed is most severe drought exceeding 100-year return period.
copula;drought;drought frequency;duration;hidden Markov model;severity;
 Cited by
Copula 함수를 활용한 삼변량 가뭄빈도해석 기법 개발,김진영;소병진;김태웅;권현한;

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