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Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario
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 Title & Authors
Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario
Lee, Okjeong; Park, Myungwoo; Lee, Jeonghoon; Kim, Sangdan;
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Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.
Climate Change;Hydro-Meteorological Method;Probable Maximum Precipitation;Orographic Transposition Factor;RCP 8.5;
 Cited by
Future PMPs Projection under Future Dew Point Temperature Variation of RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario, Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 2016, 16, 2, 505  crossref(new windwow)
Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios, Advances in Meteorology, 2016, 2016, 1  crossref(new windwow)
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