Analyzing the drought event in 2015 through statistical drought frequency analysis Lee, Taesam; Son, Chanyoung;
Drought is a water-related natural disaster which can be simply described as spatially and temporally sequential absence of water. However, its characteristics are very difficult to define. For this reason, the preparation and mitigation from drought events have not been successful. In the current study, we illustrated a design drought estimation approach of water resources infrastructures as well as the existing theoretical one to prepare and mitigate drought disasters. Theoretical and simulation methods were tested including three time series models such as autoregressive (AR), Gamma AR, Copula AR models. The results indicated that for South Korea region, the simulation-based method to estimate drought frequency presented better performance and all the three time series models show similar performance to each other. The current drought event occurring in South Korea was investigated with dividing South Korea into four basins as Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, and Nakdong River basins. The results showed that two middle and north basins presented significant drought events with 3 year drought duration and around 40 year return period while the other two southern regions illustrated relatively weaker drought events.
simulation-based method;drought;return period;time series model;
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