Assessment of uncertainty associated with parameter of gumbel probability density function in rainfall frequency analysis

- Journal title : Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
- Volume 49, Issue 5, 2016, pp.411-422
- Publisher : Korea Water Resources Association
- DOI : 10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.5.411

Title & Authors

Assessment of uncertainty associated with parameter of gumbel probability density function in rainfall frequency analysis

Moon, Jang-Won; Moon, Young-Il; Kwon, Hyun-Han;

Moon, Jang-Won; Moon, Young-Il; Kwon, Hyun-Han;

Abstract

Rainfall-runoff modeling in conjunction with rainfall frequency analysis has been widely used for estimating design floods in South Korea. However, uncertainties associated with underlying distribution and sampling error have not been properly addressed. This study applied a Bayesian method to quantify the uncertainties in the rainfall frequency analysis along with Gumbel distribution. For a purpose of comparison, a probability weighted moment (PWM) was employed to estimate confidence interval. The uncertainties associated with design rainfalls were quantitatively assessed using both Bayesian and PWM methods. The results showed that the uncertainty ranges with PWM are larger than those with Bayesian approach. In addition, the Bayesian approach was able to effectively represent asymmetric feature of underlying distribution; whereas the PWM resulted in symmetric confidence interval due to the normal approximation. The use of long period data provided better results leading to the reduction of uncertainty in both methods, and the Bayesian approach showed better performance in terms of the reduction of the uncertainty.

Keywords

Uncertainty;Bayesian Analysis;Parameter Uncertainty;Frequency Analysis;Gumbel Distribution;

Language

Korean

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