JOURNAL BROWSE
Search
Advanced SearchSearch Tips
Variation of Determinant Factor for Seoul Metropolitan Area's Housing and Rent Price in Korea
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
Variation of Determinant Factor for Seoul Metropolitan Area's Housing and Rent Price in Korea
Lee, Kyung-Ae; Park, Sang-Hak; Kim, Yong-Soon;
  PDF(new window)
 Abstract
This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.
 Keywords
Housing Market;Housing Price;Jensei Price;Vector Auto Regression Model;Structural Variation;Metropolitan Area;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
1.
VAR분석을 활용한 금융위기 이후 서울 아파트 전세가격 변화,김현우;이두헌;

한국산학기술학회논문지, 2015. vol.16. 9, pp.6315-6324 crossref(new window)
1.
A Study on the Seoul Apartment Jeonse Price after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 in the Frame of Vecter Auto Regressive Model(VAR), Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, 2015, 16, 9, 6315  crossref(new windwow)
 References
1.
김명직, 장국영(2003), 금융시계열분석, 경문사.

2.
김봉호(2008), 주택가격 결정요인에 관한 연구, 한국부동산학회, 부동산학보, 32: 238-244.

3.
김용순, 권치흥, 이경애, 이현림(2011), 2008년 금융위기 이후 부동산시장 가격결정요인 변화 분석", LHI Journal, 2(4): 367-377.

4.
김용순, 이경애(2011), "금융위기 이후 수도권 주택매매 및 전세 가격 결정요인 변화 분석", 한국주택학회 20주년 정기학술대회, pp. 225-245.

5.
박헌수, 안지아(2009), "VAR모형을 이용한 부동산가격 변동요 인에 관한 연구", 한국부동산연구원, 부동산연구, 19(1): 27-49.

6.
김갑성, 서승환(1999), 부동산시장의 구조변화에 대한 실증분석, 삼성경제연구소.

7.
손정식, 김관영, 김용순(2002), "부동산가격 예측모형에 관한 연구",주택연구, 한국주택학회, 11(1): 49-75.

8.
이상영(2011), "금융위기 이후 부동산시장의 구조변화와 전망", 한국사회과학연구소, 동향과 전망 2011년 여름호, pp. 113-146.

9.
이수욱(2011), 사회.경제구조 전환기의 주택정책 패러다임 정립방안 연구, 국토연구원.

10.
이영수(2010), "주택가격과 전세가격: VECM 분석", 부동산학 연구, 한국부동산분석학회, 16(4): 21-32.

11.
이중희(1997),주택경제론, 박영사.

12.
이희석(2007), 거시경제변수가 주택매매 및 전세지수에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구, 경원대학교 박사학위논문.

13.
정의철(2010), "소비자 심리가 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석", 부동산학연구, 한국부동산분석학회, 16(3): 5-20.

14.
한정희(2010), "금융위기 전후 주택가격 결정요인으로서의 유동성에 관한 연구", 한국지역경제연구, 한국지역경제학회, 15: 105-112.

15.
Dickey, D. and W. A. Fuller (1979), "Distribution of the Estimattors for Time Series Regressions with a Unit Root," Journal of American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.

16.
Engle, R. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), "Co- integration and Error Correction : Representation, Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, 55: 251-276. crossref(new window)

17.
Hanilton, J. D. (1994), Time Series Analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

18.
Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Peron (1988), "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regressions," Biometrica, 65: 335-346.