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Variation of Determinant Factor for Seoul Metropolitan Area's Housing and Rent Price in Korea
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Variation of Determinant Factor for Seoul Metropolitan Area's Housing and Rent Price in Korea
Lee, Kyung-Ae; Park, Sang-Hak; Kim, Yong-Soon;
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This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.
Housing Market;Housing Price;Jensei Price;Vector Auto Regression Model;Structural Variation;Metropolitan Area;
 Cited by
VAR분석을 활용한 금융위기 이후 서울 아파트 전세가격 변화,김현우;이두헌;

한국산학기술학회논문지, 2015. vol.16. 9, pp.6315-6324 crossref(new window)
A Study on the Seoul Apartment Jeonse Price after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 in the Frame of Vecter Auto Regressive Model(VAR), Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society, 2015, 16, 9, 6315  crossref(new windwow)
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