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Evaluation of the Applicability of the Poisson Cluster Rainfall Generation Model for Modeling Extreme Hydrological Events
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Evaluation of the Applicability of the Poisson Cluster Rainfall Generation Model for Modeling Extreme Hydrological Events
Kim, Dong-Kyun; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Hwang, Seok Hwan; Kim, Tae-Woong;
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This study evaluated the applicability of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) rainfall generation model for modeling extreme rainfalls and floods in Korean Peninsula. Firstly, using the ISPSO (Isolated Species Particle Swarm Optimization) method, the parameters of the MBLRP model were estimated at the 61 ASOS (Automatic Surface Observation System) rain gauges located across Korean Peninsula. Then, the synthetic rainfall time series with the length of 100 years were generated using the MBLRP model for each of the rain gauges. Finally, design rainfalls and design floods with various recurrence intervals were estimated based on the generated synthetic rainfall time series, which were compared to the values based on the observed rainfall time series. The results of the comparison indicate that the design rainfalls based on the synthetic rainfall time series were smaller than the ones based on the observation by 20% to 42%. The amount of underestimation increased with the increase of return period. In case of the design floods, the degree of underestimation was 31% to 50%, which increases along with the return period of flood and the curve number of basin.
Extreme flood;Extreme rainfall;Poisson cluster;Rainfall generation model;
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