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Prediction of Andong Reservoir Inflow Using Ensemble Technique
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 Title & Authors
Prediction of Andong Reservoir Inflow Using Ensemble Technique
Kang, Min Suk; Yu, Myungsu; Yi, Jaeeung;
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In this study, Andong Reservoir monthly and ten days inflows from July 2011 to September 2011 are predicted using SWAT model and ensemble technique. The weight method using monthly and ten days rainfall forecasts from Korea Meteorological Administration is applied for accurate analysis. If the rainfall prediction announced by Korea Meteorological Administration is close to the actual rainfall, the PDF-Ratio Method shows the best result. If the past high rainfall occurrence is close to the actual rainfall, the modified PDF-Ratio method shows the best result. This method can improve the prediction accuracy even though the Korea Meteorological Administration forecast is not accurate. On the contrary, if Korea Meteorological Administration forecast is different from the actual rainfall and the past rainfall occurrence statistics of lower section, the uniform method shows the best result.
ESP;SWAT Model;PDF-Ratio;Andong reservoir;
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