JOURNAL BROWSE
Search
Advanced SearchSearch Tips
Development of Traffic Accident frequency Prediction Model by Administrative zone - A Case of Seoul
facebook(new window)  Pirnt(new window) E-mail(new window) Excel Download
 Title & Authors
Development of Traffic Accident frequency Prediction Model by Administrative zone - A Case of Seoul
Hong, Ji Yeon; Lee, Soo Beom; Kim, Jeong Hyun;
  PDF(new window)
 Abstract
In Korea, the local traffic safety master plan has been established and implemented according to the Traffic Safety Act. Each local government is required to establish a customized traffic safety policy and share roles for improvement of traffic safety and this means that local governments lead and promote effective local traffic safety policies fit for local circumstances in substance. For implementing efficient traffic safety policies, which accord with many-sided characteristics of local governments, the prediction of community-based traffic accidents, which considers local characteristics and the analysis of accident influence factors must be preceded, but there is a shortage of research on this. Most of existing studies on the community-based traffic accident prediction used social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments in countries or cities due to the limit of collected data. For this reason, there was a limit in applying the developed models to the actual reduction of traffic accidents. Thus, this study developed a local traffic accident prediction model, based on smaller regional units, administrative districts, which were not omitted in existing studies and suggested a method to reflect traffic safety facility and policy variables that traffic safety policy makers can control, in addition to social and economic variables related to accident exposure environments, in the model and apply them to the development of local traffic safety policies. The model development result showed that in terms of accident exposure environments, road extension, gross floor area of buildings, the ratio of bus lane installation and the number of crossroads and crosswalks had a positive relation with accidents and the ratio of crosswalk sign installation, the number of speed bumps and the results of clampdown by police force had a negative relation with accidents.
 Keywords
Traffic safety;Traffic accident prediction model;Logarithmic transformation;Traffic safety facility;Traffic safety policy;
 Language
Korean
 Cited by
 References
1.
Adams, J. (1987). "Smeed's Law: Some Further Thoughts." Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 70-73.

2.
Box, G. E. P. and Cox, D. R. (1964). "An analysis of transformations." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B(Methodological), Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 211-252.

3.
Jin, C. J., Lee, H. S. and Choo, S. H. (2012). "Developing trip generation models using spatial regression analysis : A Case for Seoul, Korea." The Korea Spatial Planning Review, Vol. 73, pp. 131-143 (in Korean). crossref(new window)

4.
Jung, J. S. and Hwang, U. G. (2010). "A macro-level study on the cause of homicide rate: Nationwide Analysis Using Spatial Regression Model." Journal of the Korean Association of Criminology, Vol. 22, No. 1, pp. 157-184 (in Korean).

5.
Jung, K. S., Moon, T. H., Jung, J. H. and Huh, S. Y. (2009). "Analysis of spatio-temporal pattern of urban crime and its influencing factors." Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 12-25 (in Korean).

6.
Kang, B. S. and Kim, G. S. (2001). Social Science statistical analysis, Datasolution Inc (in Korean).

7.
Kim, H. S. (1987). Methoden zur Beschreibung des Unfallgeschehens-Versuch eines Vergleichs Zwischen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der Republik Korea-, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany.

8.
Kim, T. H., No, J. H. and Oh, Y. T. (2010). "Development of trip generation type models toward traffic zone characteristics." International Journal of Highway Engineering, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 93-100 (in Korean).

9.
Ko, W. K. (2011). Data Analysis of Social Science by data entering per step by SPSS, Kyungmoonsa Inc(in Korean).

10.
Kwon, K. D. (1993). A Study on Development of Forecasting Model for Traffic Accident in Seoul, Master Dissertation, Hongik University (in Korean).

11.
Lee, H. S. (2010). SPSS 10.0's manual, Bobmunsa Inc (in Korean).

12.
Lee, S. Y., Lee, J. H. and Hwang, M. J. (2007). "Studies on the transformation of the dependent variable in the non-linear regression analysis." Journal of The Korean Official Statistics, Vol. 12, pp. 1-22 (in Korean).

13.
Markowitz, F., Sciortino, S., Fleck, J. L. and Yee, B. M. (2006). "Pedestrian countdown signals: Experience with an Extensive Pilot Installation." Institute of Transportation Engineers, ITE Journal, Vol. 76, No. 1, pp. 43-48.

14.
Park, J. T. (2011a). "Development of traffic accident forecasting models considering urban-transportation system characteristics." Journal of Korea Transportation Research Society, Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 39-56 (in Korean).

15.
Park, J. Y. (2011b). Development of Macroscopic Traffic Accident Analysis Model by Regional Characteristics, Master Dissertation, University of Seoul (in Korean).

16.
Pulugurtha, S. S. and Pasupuleti, N. (2010). "Assessment of link reliability as a function of congestion components." Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 136, No. 10, pp. 903-913. crossref(new window)

17.
Smeed, R. J. (1949). "Some statistical aspects of road safety research." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A(General), Vol. 112, No. 1, pp. 1-34. crossref(new window)

18.
Sung, T. J. (2011). Easy Statistical Analysis Using SPS/AMOS, Hakjisa corp (in Korean).

19.
Wedagama, D. M. P., Bird, R. N. and Metcalfe, A. V. (2006). "The influence of urban land-use on non-motorised transport casualties." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 1049-1057. crossref(new window)

20.
Wier, M., Weintraub, J., Humphreys, E. H. Seto, E. and Bhatia, R. (2009). "An area-level model of vehicle-pedestrian injury collisions with implications for land use and transportation planning." Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 137-145. crossref(new window)