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A Simple Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecasting - Evaluation by Typhoon Bolaven Case -
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 Title & Authors
A Simple Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecasting - Evaluation by Typhoon Bolaven Case -
Kim, Jin-Young; Kim, Hyun-Goo; Kang, Yong-Heack; Yun, Chang-Yeol; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jun-Shin;
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A simple but practical Ensemble Prediction System(EPS) for wind power forecasting was developed and evaluated using the measurement of the offshore meteorological tower, HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unite-1) installed at the Southwest Offshore in South Korea. The EPS developed by the Korea Institute of Energy Research is based on a simple ensemble mean of two Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP) models, WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. In addition, the Kalman Filter is applied for real-time quality improvement of wind ensembles. All forecasts with EPS were analyzed in comparison with the HeMOSU-1 measurements at 97 m above sea level during Typhoon Bolaven episode in August 2012. The results indicate that EPS was in the best agreement with the in-situ measurement regarding (peak) wind speed and cut-out speed incidence. The RMSE of wind speed was 1.44 m/s while the incidence time lag of cut-out wind speed was 0 hour, which means that the EPS properly predicted a development and its movement. The duration of cut-out wind speed period by the EPS was also acceptable. This study is anticipated to provide a useful quantitative guide and information for a large-scale offshore wind farm operation in the decision making of wind turbine control especially during a typhoon episode.
Wind power forecasting;EPS(Ensemble Prediction System);NWP(Numerical Weather Prediction);KF(Kalman Filter);Typhoon Bolaven;HeMOSU-1(Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unit-1);
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