Estimating the Behavior of an Actual Market System with a Stream of Relations and Simulation Experiments

  • Tae Ho Kim (Department of Statistics, Chungbuk National Universituy, Cheongju, 360-763, Korea)
  • Published : 1997.08.01


When a modeling process is applied to an actual commodity market in the real world, interactions over closely related commodities through the marketing channel should also be formulated into the model to reflect the information that exists in the whole market system, otherwise unreliable estimates and test statistics may be produced by ignoring those effects. Single-equation type model in this case tends to yield inefficient estimates, and sometimes biased and inconsistent, which will mislead us. A system of equation method to examine the structure of the imported commodity market system is developed and its emtirical results are analyzed, then followed by some policy experiments and its implications.



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