Study on the Prediction Models for the Productions of Major Food Crops

주요 식량작물의 생산량 예측 모형에 관한 연구

  • 장석환 (계명대학교 기초과학부 통계학)
  • Published : 2000.04.30

Abstract

In oreder to predict the productions of major crops such as rice, barely, soybean and potato in Kyongsang Puk Do as early as possible, an attempt has been made to develop some prediction model of crop yields, using the data from the Statistical Yearbooks of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries from 1966 through 1999. Among the various models considered, $y=\exp({\beta}_{0}+{\beta}_{1}t+{\epsilon})$ was best fit to the planted area of the crops and $y=\exp({\beta}_{0}+{\beta}_{1}t^{1/2}+{\beta}_{2}t+{\sum}^{p}_{i=1}{\beta}_{i}+_2x_i+{\epsilon})$ to the yields. The $R^{2}$ values for the planted areas were $0.9180{\sim}0.9505$, implying good prediction, while that for rice was 0.7234 and those for barley, soybean and potato were $0.8855{\sim}0.9098$, Predictions have also been made for the planted areas upto the year 2005 and yield for the year 2000.

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