Basis Strategies for Improving the Economics of Petroleum Stockpiling

베이시스를 이용한 석유비축의 경제성 제고 방안

  • 윤원철 (한양대학교 경제금융학부)
  • Published : 2004.06.30

Abstract

The current petroleum stockpiling by Korean government is based on the static concept of dead-stock. However, the recent changes in economic environment is requiring a transition to the dynamic concept of flow-stock. This study suggested selective trading strategies using basis of changing oil prices as an option for improving the economics of domestic strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), and quantitatively analyzed their effects. For this purpose, we tested the validity of selective trading strategies using the weekly spot and forwards prices of WTI for the period of October 1997 to August 2002. Summarizing the simulation results, the selective trading strategies would increase the expected values of profits and decrease their volatilities compared to those of traditional routine strategies. And, the adoption of trigger value could increase the improvements by the selective trading strategies. Based on the results, we suggest that, in order to improve the economics of domestic petroleum stockpiling, it is necessary to actively utilize the reserve facilities and the reserved petroleum with proper derivatives position.