Reliability Estimation Using Kriging Metamodel

크리깅 메타모델을 이용한 신뢰도 계산

  • 조태민 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과) ;
  • 주병현 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과) ;
  • 정도현 (한국자동차부품연구원) ;
  • 이병채 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과)
  • Published : 2006.08.01


In this study, the new method for reliability estimation is proposed using kriging metamodel. Kriging metamodel can be determined by appropriate sampling range and sampling numbers because there are no random errors in the Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) model. The first kriging metamodel is made based on widely ranged sampling points. The Advanced First Order Reliability Method(AFORM) is applied to the first kriging metamodel to estimate the reliability approximately. Then, the second kriging metamodel is constructed using additional sampling points with updated sampling range. The Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) is applied to the second kriging metamodel to evaluate the reliability. The proposed method is applied to numerical examples and the results are almost equal to the reference reliability.


Reliability;Kriging Metamodel;Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments;AFORM


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