DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Reliability Estimation Using Kriging Metamodel

크리깅 메타모델을 이용한 신뢰도 계산

  • 조태민 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과) ;
  • 주병현 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과) ;
  • 정도현 (한국자동차부품연구원) ;
  • 이병채 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과)
  • Published : 2006.08.01

Abstract

In this study, the new method for reliability estimation is proposed using kriging metamodel. Kriging metamodel can be determined by appropriate sampling range and sampling numbers because there are no random errors in the Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments(DACE) model. The first kriging metamodel is made based on widely ranged sampling points. The Advanced First Order Reliability Method(AFORM) is applied to the first kriging metamodel to estimate the reliability approximately. Then, the second kriging metamodel is constructed using additional sampling points with updated sampling range. The Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) is applied to the second kriging metamodel to evaluate the reliability. The proposed method is applied to numerical examples and the results are almost equal to the reference reliability.

Keywords

Reliability;Kriging Metamodel;Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments;AFORM

References

  1. Hasofer, A. M. and Lind, N. C., 1974, 'Exact and Invariant Second Moment Code Format,' J. of Eng. Mech., ASCE, Vol. 100, pp. 111-121
  2. Schueller, G. I., Bucher, C. G., Bourgund, U. and Ouypompasert, W., 1987, 'On Efficient Computational Schemes to Calculate Structural Failure Probabilities,' Stochastic Structural Mechanics, U.S.-Austria Joint Seminar, pp. 338-410
  3. Sacks, J., Welch, W. J., Mitchel, T. J., 1989, 'Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments,' Statistical Science, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 409-435 https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177012413
  4. Lee, T. H., Lee, C. J. and Lee, K. K., 2003, 'Shape Optimization of a CRT based on Response Surface and Kriging Metamodels, ' Trans. of the KSME(A), Vol .27, No. 3, pp. 381-386 https://doi.org/10.3795/KSME-A.2003.27.3.381
  5. Park, C. K., Lee, K. K., Lee, T. H. and Bae, D. S., 2003, 'Optimization of a Train Suspension Using Kriging Model,' Trans. of the KSME(A), Vol. 27, No .6, pp. 864-870 https://doi.org/10.3795/KSME-A.2003.27.6.864
  6. Sakata, S., Ashida, F. and Zako, M., 2003, 'Structural Optimization Using Kriging Approximation,' Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg, Vol. 192, pp. 923-939 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0045-7825(02)00617-5
  7. Kaymaz, I., 2005, 'Application of Kriging Method to Structural Reliability Problems,' Structural Safety, Vol. 27, pp. 133-151 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2004.09.001
  8. Ryu, J. S., Kim, M. S., Cha, K. J., Lee, T. H. and Choi, D. H., 2002, 'Kriging Interpolation Method for Geostatics and DACE Model,' KSME International Journal, Vol. 16, pp. 619-632 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03184811
  9. Bucher, C. G. and Bourgund, U., 1987, 'Efficient Use of Response Surface Methods,' Institute of Engineering Mechanics Report No. 9-87, University of Innsbruck
  10. Giunta, A. A., Wojtkiewicz Jr, S. F. and Eldred, M. S., 2003, 'Overview of Modern Design of Experiments Methods for Computational Simulations,' AIAA-0649, pp. 1-17
  11. Shooman, M. L., 1968, Probabilistic Reliability:An Engineering Approach, McGraw-Hill
  12. Lophaven S. N., Nielsen, H. B. and Sondergaard, J., 2002, DACE, Matlab Kriging Toolbox
  13. Kim, S. H. and Na, S. W., 1997, 'Response Surface Method Using Vector Projected Sampling Points,' Structural Safety, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 3-19 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-4730(96)00037-9
  14. Ang, H-S A. and Tang, H. W., 1984, Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. I and Vol. II, John Wiley & Sons
  15. Liu, Y. W. and Moses, F., 1994, 'A Sequential Response Surface Method and Its Application in the Reliability Analysis of Aircraft Structural Systems,' Structural Safety, Vol. 16, pp. 39-46 https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4730(94)00023-J
  16. Lee, S. G., 2006, Reliability-based Optimization of a Lower Control Arm Considering the Variations in Fatigue Material Properties, Master's Thesis of KAIST
  17. Bannantine, J. A., Comer, J. J. and Handrock, J. L., 1990, Fundamentals of Metal Fatigue Analysis, Prentice Hall

Cited by

  1. RBDO of Coil Spring Considering Transversal Direction Mode Tracking vol.37, pp.6, 2013, https://doi.org/10.3795/KSME-A.2013.37.6.821
  2. Optimal Design for a Conic Winglet of a Dual Type Combined Fan vol.44, pp.6, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5139/JKSAS.2016.44.6.468