크리깅 근사모델을 이용한 통계모멘트 기반 신뢰도 계산의 성능 개선

• 주병현 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과) ;
• 조태민 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과) ;
• 정도현 (자동차부품연구원) ;
• 이병채 (한국과학기술원 기계공학과)
• Published : 2006.08.01
• 42 6

Abstract

Many methods for reliability analysis have been studied and one of them, a moment method, has the advantage that it doesn't require sensitivities of performance functions. The moment method for reliability analysis requires the first four moments of a performance function and then Pearson system is used for the probability of failure where the accuracy of the probability of failure greatly depends on that of the first four moments. But it is generally impossible to assess them analytically for multidimensional functions, and numerical integration is mainly used to estimate the moment. However, numerical integration requires many function evaluations and in case of involving finite element analyses, the calculation of the first fo 따 moments is very time-consuming. To solve the problem, this research proposes a new method of approximating the first four moments based on kriging metamodel. The proposed method substitutes the kriging metamodel for the performance function and can also evaluate the accuracy of the calculated moments adjusting the approximation range. Numerical examples show the proposed method can approximate the moments accurately with the less function evaluations and evaluate the accuracy of the calculated moments.

Keywords

Kriging Metamodel;Moment Method;Reliability

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