Development of Accident Prediction Models for Freeway Interchange Ramps

고속도로 인터체인지 연결로에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발

  • 박효신 (연세대학교 도시공학과) ;
  • 손봉수 (연세대학교 도시공학과) ;
  • 김형진 (연세대학교 도시공학과)
  • Published : 2007.06.30

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between traffic accidents occurring at trumpet interchange ramps according to accident type as well as the relevant factors that led to the traffic accidents, such as geometric design elements and traffic volumes. In the process of analysis of the distribution of traffic accidents, negative binomial distribution was selected as the most appropriate model. Negative binomial regression models were developed for total trumpet interchange ramps, direct ramps, loop ramps and semi-direct ramps based on the negative binomial distribution. Based upon several statistical diagnostics of the difference between observed accidents and predicted accidents with four previously developed models, the fit proved to be reasonable. Understanding of statistically significant variables in the developed model will enable designers to increase efficiency in terms of road operations and the development of traffic accident prevention policies in accordance with road design features.

Keywords

Accident Prediction Models;Negative Binomial Distribution;Trumpet Interchange;Traffic Volumes;Safety Planning

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