Forecasting the Diffusion of Technology using Patent Information: Focused on Information Security Technology for Network-Centric Warfare

특허정보를 활용한 기술 확산 예측: NCW 정보보호기술을 중심으로

  • 김도회 (고려대학교 정보경영공학부) ;
  • 박상성 (고려대학교 정보경영공학부) ;
  • 신영근 (고려대학교 정보경영공학부) ;
  • 장동식 (고려대학교 정보경영공학부)
  • Published : 2009.02.28


The paradigm of economy has been transformed into knowledge based economic paradigm in 21th century. Analysis of patent trend is one of the strategic methods for increasing their patent competitive power. However, this method is just presenting statistical data about patent trend or qualitative analysis about some core technology. In this paper, we forecast technology diffusion using patent information for more progressive analysis. We make an experiment with bass model and logistic model and make use of patent data about information-security technology for NCW as input data. We conclude that the logistic model is more efficient for forecasting and this technology is approaching to the age of technology maturity.


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