The Term Structure and Predicting the Domestic Recessions

금리의 기간구조와 경기후퇴의 예측

Kim, Tae-Ho;Song, Dae-Sub

  • Published : 2009.04.30


Various methods have been suggested in developing the useful leading indicators to predict the actual realizations when time laps exist between policy plannings and future events. The recent economic crisis could have been relived if the information necessary to respond to the future evolutionary process is provided in advance. As the relations between the financial variables and the real economic activity become unstable because of the changes in the financial environment, this study attempts to estimate the capabilities of various internal and external term spreads in predicting the future business trend, followed by comparison and evaluation.


Recession probability;term spread;coincidence index


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