A Note on the Population Policy of 1983

1983년도 인구 정책에 관한 소고

  • Park, War-Lan (Korea National Statistical Office) ;
  • Jung, Ji-Won (Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Park, Hui-Chang (Department of Statistics, Changwon National University) ;
  • Lee, Suk-Hoon (Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Chungnam National University)
  • Published : 2009.06.30


All the policies and plans need to be carried out at the proper times in order that they would work properly for what they are made for. It is will known that statistics are one of the most useful tools in deciding the proper times for the policies. In this paper we show how to use statistics in evaluating the policies already carried with respect to the time when they were executed in dealing with the population policy we had in 1983 when the total fertility rate hit the population replacement level 2.1. Two methods have been tried to show that the policy carried in 1983 missed the proper changing time. The one is to make forecasting only with the data possible before 1982 and show how close they can be to the real situation of today. The other is to show what would happen if the policies aiming to suppress population growth had been changed or abandoned. Both results from two methods give some quantified information about the population policy of 1983. Especially the prediction tells that we could have forecasted the problem of low fertility of this century in 1983.


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