Simulation Based Method for Mid-and-Long Term Technological Forecasting

중장기 기술예측을 위한 시뮬레이션 기반 방법론

  • 유성열 (부산가톨릭대학교 유통경영정보학부)
  • Published : 2010.01.28


In this study, we consider a mid-and-long term technological forecasting method based on simulation technique. We, first, gather information about a point of appearance time of new technologies which will be developed in the future and influence relationship among those technologies by Delphi survey. And then we propose a simulation-based heuristic approach searching for the key technology among new technologies which will be developed to attain a normative objective using the Delphi data. We also provide the range of occurrence time for individual technology and define key technologies in this study in contrast that a expert's estimate to occurrence time is only one point in traditional Delphi survey. The information for key technologies which are detected by this procedure gives priorities of R&D planning and aids the R&D planner or project manager in resource allocation.


Technological Forecasting;Key Technology;Simulation;Delphi


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