Statistical Probability Analysis of Storage Temperatures of Domestic Refrigerator as a Risk Factor of Foodborne Illness Outbreak

식중독 발생 위해인자로서 가정용 냉장고의 온도에 대한 확률분포 분석

  • Received : 2010.01.12
  • Accepted : 2010.02.08
  • Published : 2010.06.30

Abstract

The objective of this study was to present the proper probability distribution model based on the data obtained from surveys on domestic refrigerator food storage temperatures in home. Domestic refrigerator temperatures were determined as risk factors in foodborne disease outbreaks for microbial risk assessment (MRA). The temperature was measured by directly visiting 139 homes using a data logger from May to September of 2009. The overall mean temperature for all the refrigerators in the survey was $3.53{\pm}2.96^{\circ}C$, with 23.6% of the refrigerators measuring above $5^{\circ}C$. Probability distributions were also created using @RISK program based on the measured temperature data. Statistical ranking was determined by the goodness of fit (GOF, i.e., the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or Anderson-Darling (AD) test) to determine the proper probability distribution model. This result showed that the LogLogistic (-10.407, 13.616, 8.6107) distribution was found to be the most appropriate for the MRA model. The results of this study might be directly used as input variables in exposure evaluation for conducting MRA.

Keywords

MRA (microbial risk assessment);probability statistics;food storage;domestic refrigerator;temperature

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Acknowledgement

Supported by : 군산대학교