Analysis of marine accident probability in Mokpo waterways

DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Kim, Kwang-Il;Park, Gye-Kark;Jeong, Jung-Sik

  • 투고 : 2011.09.27
  • 심사 : 2011.11.08
  • 발행 : 2011.12.31

초록

The maritime risk assessment is important not only to evaluate the safety level of the ports and waterways but also to reduce potential maritime accidents at sea in terms of the proactive measures of the maritime accidents. In this paper, the collision risk assessment in Mokpo waterways has been carried out based on the IALA recommended model, IWRAP. To evaluate the accident probabilities in Mokpo waterways, all data of vessels were collected from AIS and Radar observations data and the computer simulations were carried out. To assess the risk on the traffic, the scenario-base approach has been applied to the Mokpo waterway by using the maritime accident statics over the past 5 years.

키워드

accident probability;geometrical probability;causation probability;collision risk;AIS

참고문헌

  1. Fujii Y, Yamanouchi H, Mizuki N(1974). "Some factors affecting the frequency of accidents in marine traffic.", Journal of Navigation, Vol.27, pp.239-247. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0373463300025960
  2. IALA(2009), IALA Risk Management Tool for Ports and Restricted Waterways, IALA Recommendation O-134, Ed.1.1, pp.18-22.
  3. Kim, D. W., Park, J. S., Park, Y. S.(2010), "Comparison Analysis between the IWRAP and the ES Model in Ulsan Waterway," Journal of Navigation and Port Research, Vol.35, No.4, pp.281-287. https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2011.35.4.281
  4. Kujala P, Hanninen M, Arola T, Ylitalo Jutta, (2009), "Analysis of Maritime Traffic Safety in the Gulf of Finland," Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94, pp.1349-1357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.028
  5. Macduff T(1974). "The probability of vessel collisions.", Ocean Industry, pp.144-148.
  6. Pedersen P.T(1995), "Collision and Grounding Mechanics," Proc. WEMT, Copenhagen, vol.1, pp.125-157.
  7. Peter Friis-Hansen (2008), "Basic Modelling Principles for Prediction of Collision and Grounding Frequencies," IWRAP MK II, working document, pp.1-59.
  8. Trucco P, Cagno E, Ruggeri F, Grande O(2008), "A Bayesian Belief Network modelling of organizational factors in risk analysis: A case study in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93, pp.823-834.
  9. Yim, J. B. and Kim, D. H.(2010), "Statistical Parameter Estimation to Calculate Collision Probability Between Mokpo Harbour Bridge and Passing Vessels," Journal of Navigation and Prot Research, Vol.34, No.8, pp.609-614. https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2010.34.8.609
  10. Ylitalo Jutta(2009), "Modelling Marine Accident Frequency" Aalto University the degree of Master of Science in Technology.

피인용 문헌

  1. 1. A Quantitative Collision Probability Analysis in Port Waterway vol.22, pp.3, 2012, doi:10.5394/KINPR.2011.35.9.729
  2. 2. A Study on Development of Maritime Traffic Assessment Model vol.22, pp.6, 2012, doi:10.5394/KINPR.2011.35.9.729
  3. 3. Probabilistic risk assessment on maritime spent nuclear fuel transportation (Part II: Ship collision probability) vol.164, 2017, doi:10.5394/KINPR.2011.35.9.729