A Sensitivity Analysis of the OZIPR Modeling Result for the Seoul Metropolitan Area

OZIPR 모델링 결과의 민감도 분석

  • Lee, Sun-Hwa (Korea Financial Corporation) ;
  • Jin, Lan (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering EwhaWomans University) ;
  • Kim, Yong Pyo (Department of Environmental Science and Engineering EwhaWomans University)
  • 이선화 (한국정책금융공사) ;
  • ;
  • 김용표 (이화여자대학교 환경공학과)
  • Received : 2011.09.09
  • Accepted : 2011.09.29
  • Published : 2011.09.30

Abstract

To establish area specific control strategies for the reduction of the ozone concentration, the Ozone Isopleth Plotting Package for Research(OZIPR) model has been widely used. However, the model results tend to changed by various input parameters such as the background concentration, emission amount of NOx and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and meteorological condition. Thus, sensitivity analysis should be required to ensure the reliability of the result. The OZIPR modeling results for five local government districts in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) in June 2000 were used for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis result showed that the modeling result of the SMA being VOC-limited region be still valid for a wide range of input parameters' variation. The estimated ozone concentrations were positively related with the initial VOCs concentrations while were negatively related with the initial NOx concentrations. But, the degree of the variations at each local district was different suggesting area specific characteristics being also important. Among the five local governments, Suwon was chosen to identify other variance through the period from April to September in 2000. The monthly modeling results show different ozone values, but still showing the characteristics of VOCs-limited region. Limitations due to not considering long range transport and transfer from neighbor area, limitation of input data, error between observed data and estimated data are all discussed.

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 기상청

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