KTX Passenger Demand Forecast with Intervention ARIMA Model

개입 ARIMA 모형을 이용한 KTX 수요예측

  • 김관형 (한국철도공사 대전충남본부) ;
  • 김한수 (한국철도공사 연구원)
  • Received : 2011.10.05
  • Accepted : 2011.10.26
  • Published : 2011.10.26


This study proposed the intervention ARIMA model as a way to forecast the KTX passenger demand. The second phase of the Gyeongbu high-speed rail project and the financial crisis in 2008 were analyzed in order to determine the effect of time series on the opening of a new line and economic impact. As a result, the financial crisis showed that there is no statistically significant impact, but the second phase of the Gyeongbu high-speed rail project showed that the weekday trips increased about 17,000 trips/day and the weekend trips increased about 26,000 trips/day. This study is meaningful in that the intervention explained the phenomena affecting the time series of KTX trip and analyzed the impact on intervention of time series quantitatively. The developed model can be used to forecast the outline of the overall KTX demand and to validate the KTX O/D forecasting demand.


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